According to BlockBeats news, on August 8, Matrixport released a weekly research report stating that the market has recently entered an adjustment phase, with Bitcoin momentum weakening and liquidity and trading heat cooling simultaneously. Trading volume has shrunk, and funding rates remain low, leading to a loosening market structure. Meanwhile, the seasonal disturbances in August, combined with external uncertainties, have noticeably led to a cautious short-term sentiment. From a technical perspective, the $112,000 level played a supportive role during the initial pullback in this round, but the subsequent rebound has been weak, and this support level is likely to face testing again. If it fails to hold, the $106,000 range may become the focus of market attention once more.
The premise for a bearish scenario to truly take hold is a continued weakening of the U.S. economy, while the Federal Reserve fails to initiate interest rate cuts in a timely manner. Current market phenomena further reinforce the viewpoint of a potential rate cut in September. However, as the Federal Reserve has yet to release clear signals, the market may continue to remain cautious and enter a consolidation phase. Even if overall corporate earnings data generally exceed expectations, market trends may still maintain a consolidation phase, as most positive factors have already been priced in, and investors are waiting for new catalysts to drive the market. In the very short term, oversold stochastic indicators may suggest a possibility of a technical rebound, but doubts remain regarding its sustainability, leaning more towards the belief that prices will continue to consolidate sideways.
The core issue currently facing Bitcoin is whether the repricing of U.S. economic growth expectations will trigger a resurgence in actual volatility. As volatility continues to decline, the net asset value (NAV) of some publicly traded companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin has contracted, weakening their ability to raise funds through new stock issuances and further increase their Bitcoin holdings. Although these companies have recently become a focus of market attention, the key factor truly suppressing this round of market activity actually comes from the continued selling pressure of early investors. It is still advisable to remain patient and wait for clear bottom signals to appear or for market momentum to recover. In Bitcoin trading, if one does not sell at high positions, one cannot reposition at low levels.
