Bitcoin has just broken through the 115,000 USD threshold, heading towards 118,000 USD, but the bullish momentum remains fragile as on-chain and network activity have not reached high consensus.
The upward momentum is only confirmed when capital flows continuously come in, the number of active users increases, and long-term investors maintain their confidence at the current price level.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin surpasses 115,000 USD, the next target is 118,000 USD – but the upward movement depends on confirmation from fundamental indicators.
Network activity and on-chain transactions show weak signs, reflecting investor sentiment is not solid.
Data on inflows to Spot surged but needs to be maintained continuously to establish a sustainable upward trend.
Bitcoin surpasses 115,000 USD – Is the bullish momentum sustainable?
Bitcoin has broken through the strong resistance level of 115,000 USD, trading around 116,377 USD and heading towards the next target in the range of 118,327 USD. However, experts say that for a sustainable upward trend, Bitcoin needs to maintain stable trading volume and demand in the upcoming sessions.
Bitcoin can only truly establish an upward trend when it holds the price above 115,000 USD while having stable demand and trading volume. Otherwise, it risks repeating a failed recovery scenario.
– Technical analysis insight, CoinMetrics 2025
Short-term price maps show Bitcoin is forming a support base with new higher lows, signaling the potential for maintaining upward momentum. However, the trading volume at the breakout range is not sufficient. Experts state that if buying pressure does not increase in the next session, prices may correct and create a 'fail breakout' scenario.
In 2025, the market witnessed several technical resistance breaches but then corrected sharply due to a lack of confirmation from fundamental factors such as inflows or participation from institutional investors (Source: Glassnode, 2025).
Why is confirmation from capital flows necessary? The difference between real breakouts and fake breakouts.
A price increase only becomes sustainable when inflows (spot flows) increase steadily, trading volume remains stable, and demand arises from multiple groups of investors. A fake breakout occurs when the price temporarily exceeds resistance but lacks confirming capital flows, easily causing the market to reverse quickly.
Comparing historical data shows that breakouts with strong inflows always lead to prolonged bull cycles, typical in 2021 when Spot inflows reached over 3 billion USD per month (Source: CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows, 2021).
A breakout without confirmation from capital flows and network activity is like a double-edged sword – more likely to create a bull trap than to initiate a new upward trend.
– Willy Woo, On-chain data analysis expert, 2025
Accumulation volume and actions of large holders: Signs of a trend?
In the latest recovery phase, over 120,000 BTC were bought in the range of 112,000 to 114,000 USD, indicating accumulation as prices adjusted to support. However, the data also recorded that long-term holders took profits of over 44.5 million USD in the past 48 hours, reflecting cautious sentiment and a lack of strong confidence.
The number of Bitcoins purchased in the range of 112,000 – 114,000 USD indicates speculative money trying to catch the bottom, but the profit-taking level of long-term holders implies that mid-term expectations are still cautious.
– Glassnode On-Chain Report, 2025
Analysis from Glassnode indicates that the range of 110,000 – 116,000 USD currently has a relatively low supply, creating an 'air-gap' – where price fluctuations are difficult to stabilize without new buying pressure.
Is network activity and on-chain transactions fluctuating erratically at peak prices?
The number of new addresses (network growth) and total transactions on the Bitcoin network are fluctuating sharply, dropping to 131K and 219K at the beginning of August 2025, respectively. This indicates that users are less actively participating in the network as prices rise to resistance areas.
Bitcoin's price history shows that the strongest growth phases are always associated with a surge in new addresses, on-chain transaction volume, and user interactions (Source: Santiment, 2025).
Stable high network indicators and growing transaction volume often lead to long-term upward trends. When this data fluctuates sharply, the likelihood of short-term corrections increases significantly.
– IntoTheBlock Analytics, 2023
What does the unexpectedly positive Bitcoin Netflow Spot volume mean?
Data from Coinglass shows that Netflow Spot on August 7 reached 33.25 million USD – ending the previous streak of outflows. This could be a signal of new money returning, or some large investors transferring capital in preparation for short-term trading.
However, historical analysis also shows that not all inflows signal price increases; in some cases, money flows in before holders distribute, creating a 'fake pump' effect.
Indicator Sustainable growth scenario Price trap scenario (Bull trap) Spot Netflow Extended increase, combined with institutional inflows Transient spike Trading volume Maintained/increasing daily Highly volatile, unstable On-chain transaction volume Consensus growth Falling or fluctuating erratically
CoinGlass experts suggest that the next 2-3 sessions will determine whether this new capital flow can create a sustainable price increase or is just a temporary phenomenon due to short-term traders exploiting price volatility.
Supporting and risky factors as Bitcoin approaches 118,000 USD
The achievement of Bitcoin conquering 115,000 USD is an important technical turning point, opening up the target price range of 118,000 – 122,000 USD. However, the biggest current risk is the lack of strong demand and the level of participation from institutional investors – factors that have previously driven large bull cycles (Source: Fidelity Digital Assets, 2023).
Bitcoin could enter a new bullish zone if it holds above 115,000 USD combined with institutional inflows and a steady increase in network transaction volume. Otherwise, the chances of correction or sideways movement will be greater.
– Tom Lee, Co-founder and Market Analyst, Fundstrat Global Advisors, 2025
The profit-taking phenomenon from long-term holders, along with divergent on-chain indicators, are factors causing the trend to be unstable. Market experience from 2021 to now shows that such bullish phases often carry a strong correction risk if sudden capital withdrawal occurs.
What are the next scenarios for Bitcoin prices – What confirms the bull cycle?
To confirm a new bull cycle, Bitcoin needs to hold above 115,000 USD for many consecutive sessions, while transaction metrics and new addresses on on-chain grow steadily. In particular, if Spot inflows and large liquidity continue to pour in, the targets of 118,000 USD and beyond will become clearer.
Conversely, if confirmation is lacking, the situation of pumps and dumps is likely to occur, leading to strong volatility risks. Comparing previous price cycles shows that price increases without large capital inflows and inconsistent network activity are often sharply corrected later (Source: CryptoCompare Market Cycles, 2024).
Comparing on-chain activity and spot trading during strong growth cycles of Bitcoin.
Price increase Spot inflows (average/month) New addresses (average/day) On-chain transactions (average/day) 2021 3.2 billion USD 185,000 275,000 2023 1.5 billion USD 125,000 195,000 2025 (current) 33.25 million USD (latest spot netflow) 131,000 219,000
This comparison table shows that strong bull cycles stem from both Spot capital flows and network activity surging simultaneously.
What should investors pay attention to when trading Bitcoin at the new price range?
When Bitcoin breaks into a new price range, FOMO sentiment often increases, leading to impulsive trading decisions. Investors should enhance risk management, prioritize support areas confirmed by strong on-chain data, and avoid chasing purchases when the market lacks inflows or network activity confirming the uptrend.
According to experts, analyzing Spot inflows, on-chain transaction volume, and long-term holder indicators are key factors in identifying genuine recovery phases. Avoid relying solely on short-term technical indicators or emotional signals from price.
Conclusion: Awaiting additional confirmation from network activity, capital flows, and large holders.
To recap, the move above 115,000 USD helps solidify Bitcoin's bullish outlook, but this trend still needs additional confirmation from on-chain data, spot inflows, and strong participation from both users and long-term holders.
Investor warning about the risk of correction if the market relies solely on technical factors and short-term sentiment without confirmation from whale actions and large capital flows.
Frequently asked questions about the current Bitcoin price movements.
Bitcoin has just surpassed 115,000 USD, is this trend secure?
Not really certain, need to monitor additional data on capital flows, network activity, and actions of long-term holders to confirm the upward trend.
What is Bitcoin's next price target?
The next resistance level is 118,000 USD, further is 122,000 USD if capital flows and network activity agree to grow.
What does a Spot Netflow increase of 33 million USD signify?
This is a signal of new money returning to the market, but continuous sessions need to be maintained to determine whether it is long-term capital or just short-term money.
Why does network activity decrease when prices rise?
At high price levels, some investors tend to stay out, causing the number of transactions and new addresses on the network to temporarily decrease.
What impact does profit-taking by long-term holders have on prices?
Profit-taking by long-term holders indicates that sentiment is not yet solid, posing a risk of short-term corrections if not supplemented by new capital and users.
When will the market confirm a new bull cycle?
When holding above 115,000 USD for several consecutive sessions combined with incoming capital, trading, and active holders agreeing to increase, the market will confirm a new bull cycle.
What should investors do when prices fluctuate sharply?
Prioritize analyzing capital flows, on-chain network activity, and only act at price support levels that confirm real data, adhering to strict risk management.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-cham-115-000-usd-du-bao-tang/
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