Yesterday, good news came, #特朗普允许401(k)投资加密货币 American pensions came to buy the dip, and Bitcoin and Ethereum also saw the third phase of the rise! Many people are confused: should we go all out? Or go against the trend and short heavily?
1. Every rebound is an opportunity to escape and short!
Various signs indicate that this is just a rebound, not a reversal; we should escape now. Today I couldn't help but short!
I still tend to think that Bitcoin's 5th wave is highly unlikely; even if there is still a 5th wave, it won't be now, but around August 11.
However, regardless of whether Bitcoin and Ethereum have the 5th wave, most altcoin seasons that started in April have already ended around July 22, and will not rebound above the highs around July 22; this viewpoint remains unchanged! Every rebound is an opportunity for altcoins to escape and short!
(1) Ethereum's lowest point above 3350 suggested buying the dip, rising by a maximum of 18%, which is very strong, rising more than altcoins! The profit-taking target given yesterday: 3870, daily Bollinger upper track 3915-3935, 3915-3935 have all been reached!
Ethereum's lowest point at 3350 suggested to buy the dip, and yesterday the highest point at 3915-3935 was suggested for profit-taking! This time I bought the dip for both Ethereum and SOL correctly.
Last night also suggested going short at 3915-3935!
The Ethereum short position at 3935 is currently slightly profitable. What do you all think, should I hold this Ethereum short position? The 3915 position has already risen to the breakeven point and exited, leaving only the 3935 short position. Should I hold or not? Can it break 4000? Shivering! However, I, as an aggressive trader, added a bit more to the short position at the high!
(2) SOL bottomed above 155.64, rising by a maximum of 12%; the profit-taking target given yesterday: 175-179, 175 has already been reached! I took some profits!
(3) Bitcoin key resistance: 117569, daily KC upper track near 118319-118460, 117569 has also reached! What do you all think, should we run or not?
Bitcoin today reminds aggressive traders that they can short near 116780 in real-time, while conservative traders should wait for a rebound before shorting!
(4) XRP's rebound is quite strong; I personally have shorted! Wait for the rebound to continue adding to the short position!
2. Short-term Bitcoin market analysis
[Xiaobai Learning Points Community Bitcoin Market Analysis 20250808: 12:49]
Bitcoin's 5th wave may not necessarily come. Yesterday I said the rebound after 111920 does not seem to be a driving wave, but just the third phase of the rise after 111920.
Resistance levels 117569 (already reached) - daily KC upper track 118400-118500-118902 (watch), the upper edge of the orange solid line descending channel has not yet been broken (pay special attention), the orange dashed line Gann angle line has not yet been broken, and 120000 has not yet been broken.
Beware of the pullback on August 11 to the blue dashed line located around 109354-110271, completing the wxyxz adjustment wave afterward.
There will be another big rebound fake breakout to the second high peak 116800-118200.
Then in August-September, there will be a sharp decline and fill the CME gap 91970-92730 (which has not been filled), coinciding with the Fibonacci fan 0.3333 support.
3. Short-term Ethereum market analysis
[Xiaobai Learning Points Community Ethereum Market Analysis 20250808: 12:20]
(1) Ethereum's 5th wave may not necessarily come. Yesterday I said the internal structure of the rebound after 3354 does not look like a driving wave.
(2) The third upward segment after 3354 is similar in length to the first upward segment, and the third upward segment seems to have already ended, looking like it is not the 5th wave.
(3) Observe whether the pullback can effectively break below 3780 and pierce 3736.73.
(4) Only if the pullback effectively holds above 3780 and does not break 3736.73, can there be a fifth upward segment, which is the 5th wave to around 4000-4024-4050.
(5) Otherwise, if 3780 is effectively lost and breaks through 3736.73, then the adjustment after July 23 conforms to the wxyxz adjustment wave, and such a wave pattern would be very complex. The pullback could be above 3354 or below 3354.
If above 3354, then pay attention to support levels 3383-3500-3606.47.
If below 3354, pay attention to support at 3150-3200-3300.
(6) The expected pullback to be completed around August 11; after the pullback ends, the possibility of a 5th wave cannot be ruled out. There may be a 5th wave, or there may not be a 5th wave.
(7) If there is a 5th wave, the rise can reach above 3969, 4000 or higher.
(8) If there is no 5th wave, the rebound will be below 3969, and then in August-September there will be a major crash to 2000-2160.84-2286-2372, followed by a large cycle of 5th wave and a surge above 4000-5000-6000.
Warning: The above market analysis for Bitcoin and Ethereum is not real-time analysis. Please study and supplement based on real-time market conditions, and do not take any trading advice! Recently jumping up and down, real-time market analysis is only shared in circles, and the circle will correct the real-time market in real-time.
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