China-US Ceasefire Agreement, the Next 24 Hours are Critical
The deadline for the China-US tariff ceasefire on August 12 is approaching, with no news reported.
Looking specifically at the situation of the third meeting, the possibility of continuing the extension for another 90 days is at 60%. Both sides are dealing with some technical issues, and the resolution of these technical issues is usually just a matter of time. #美国加征关税
But the issue lies with Russian oil. Trump claims that tariffs may be imposed due to China's purchase of Russian oil. If this is added, the possibility of continuing the ceasefire drops to 40%, or even lower. After announcing a 25% tariff increase on India, the market did not panic, which may give Trump the confidence to test China's limits.
China's stock market and offshore yuan fell on Friday, partly due to concerns about next week. The next 24 hours are critical, as August 8 is the deadline Trump set for Russia, and we may see preliminary results by early tomorrow morning, which will largely affect whether the China-US trade ceasefire is extended.
