The price is racing against the Bollinger upper band but 'hit the brakes' above the POC—long positions are quietly reducing, spot buying is flowing back, resembling a washout before a surge.
[Key Interval Structure]
1. Value Anchor: POC 3648, the 'psychological bottom line' for intraday bulls pulling back.
2. High Volume Area:
• HVN-1 3609-3667 (dense trading over the past two weeks), a pullback is seen as a buy opportunity;
• HVN-2 3752-3781, if the breakthrough is successful, it will open up upward space.
3. Low Volume Gap:
• LVN-1 3890-3900 (only 300,000 ETH traded above), breaking through could quickly hit the 3958 Bollinger upper band;
• LVN-2 3430-3450 (lower vacuum), if it breaks below 3609 it will accelerate sliding towards this level.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 3581-3809, current price 3889 is close to the upper edge, short-term entering 'overbought territory'.
[Momentum Verification]
• 3890-3900: Down Volume 56%, selling slightly dominant, needs an increase in volume to confirm upward movement.
• 3648-3667: Up Volume 61%, strong bullish defense willingness, a pullback to this area can be regarded as a safety cushion.
[Auxiliary Signals]
• Bollinger Bands: Current price at 71% percentile, upper band 3958 is a natural resistance; MA200 3635, deviation +7%, medium-term trend still upward.
• Contract Holdings: 24h reduced by 20%, but prices continue to rise, volume-price divergence suggests a short-term pullback may be needed.
[Market Cycle]
In the 'mid-market bull phase' of oscillation: long-term highs continuously moving up, short-term washing through high volume areas.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Aggressive Long Position: Pull back to 3667±5 to place long, stop loss at 3630 (lower HVN-1 outer edge), target 3752/3958, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.
2. Steady Long Position: Wait for a 15-minute level breakout above 3900 with Up Volume > 60% to chase long, stop loss at 3874 (lower LVN edge), target 3958, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.2.
3. Counter-Trend Short Position: If the 1-hour close drops below 3609 and Down Volume > 55%, can short to POC 3648, stop loss above 3635, risk-reward ratio ≈ 1.8.
Risk Control: Any strategy that triggers a stop loss will exit completely; if a macro black swan occurs, observe directly.
[LP Market Making Suggestion]
In the '3667-3752' high volume area, place thin orders on both sides, width of the range ≈ 2.3%, using high-frequency trading to earn fees; if the price breaks above 3752, simultaneously move the range up to '3752-3820'.
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