The eighteenth episode of (Unprotected in the Crypto Circle), co-hosted by Techub News, Wind, Uweb, and Chain Intelligence, features host Qie Ge alongside Dave (Coal Doctor), the founder of the 'Coal Boss Private Board’ and A God, co-founder of RITD Lab, in a deep dialogue about hot topics and trends in the crypto market. This episode focuses on the 'pinning' phenomenon during a bull market, combining insights from the U.S. market to discuss market volatility logic, investment strategies, and new opportunities in the crypto ecosystem, revealing short-term risks and long-term potential.
Pension plans entering the market and market volatility: Coal Doctor analyzes short-term risks and long-term trends.
Qie Ge brings up the hot topic of nearly $9 trillion in 401(k) pension plans entering the crypto market, pointing out that it has pushed Bitcoin (BTC) to rise over 1.4% and Ethereum (ETH) to surge. Coal Doctor believes this kind of news stimulates the market in the short term, but capital inflow takes time, belonging to a small cycle benefit. Looking at the larger cycle, the bull market trend is clear, but mid-term risks stem from concerns over corrections in U.S. employment data leading to recession worries and the 'too late' risk of September interest rate cuts (with over 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut). He emphasizes that the market often leads the news, and BTC has not broken through its consolidation range, making it difficult to reach new highs in the short term. Coal Doctor also mentions the historical decline of U.S. stocks and BTC in August-September (affected by summer consumption) and the behavioral finance effects brought about by the U.S. 'Ghost Festival', predicting that a major bull market may be postponed until late September to October.
Market strength and technical analysis: A God interprets short-term trends.
A神 analyzes the recent market driven by Trump’s inclusion of real estate in the investment portfolio and expectations of interest rate cuts. BTC shows a strong upward trend on a four-hour level, with a decline of only 9%-10%, reflecting market resilience. He advises monitoring whether BTC can stabilize above the MA60 and MA200 moving averages to determine the continuation of short-term strength, emphasizing the need to closely monitor on-chain data and be alert to volatility risks under recession concerns.
ETF flows and RWA trends: Qie Ge analyzes market integration.
Qie Ge points out that the crypto market is being integrated with traditional finance, with ETF funds flowing out and institutional dominance pushing BTC to $123,000. He mentions crypto companies (like BNB) seeking to list on Nasdaq and traditional companies adopting a 'micro-strategy model' to hold BTC and ETH, with the approval of spot ETFs and staking enhancing capital flexibility. However, he reminds that volatility in the bull market requires caution, and there are gaps in BTC between $112,000 and $114,000 that may need to be filled, calling for adherence to the principle of 'buy when no one cares, sell when the crowd is clamoring.' The difficulty of RWA realization is high, and while stablecoins are representative, their replicability is limited.
Future outlook for RWA: A God is optimistic about national policies and Ethereum staking.
A God believes the RWA market size may exceed $10 trillion, and BlackRock's application for ETH spot staking shows that institutions value the security of public chains. The ETH staking rate is about 30%, and if it exceeds 50% (like Solana), it will enhance network security and push up coin prices. U.S. national policies (stablecoin legislation, Adequate Act) strengthen the dollar and absorb U.S. debt, with huge potential for RWA and ETH to develop synergistically. He advises investors to pay attention to this blue ocean market.
On-chain U.S. debt and RWA cautious observation: Coal Doctor discusses opportunities and pseudo-concepts.
Coal Doctor believes that on-chain U.S. debt increases buying through the stablecoin 'double spending' mechanism, aiding in debt reduction and benefiting the U.S. debt market. However, he warns that most RWA projects remain in a pseudo-concept stage, with implementation falling short compared to 2017-2018. In the Chinese context, RWA and stablecoins are more easily accepted due to the 'physicalization' label, with heated domestic discussions, but caution against speculation risk is necessary.
Ethereum outlook: A God targets 10,000, Coal Doctor is optimistic in the short term.
Qie Ge mentions that the ETH mainnet has high liquidity but the applications (like NFT, DeFi) are decreasing, transaction costs are high, and stablecoin usage is declining, shifting towards a value storage role. A God combines candlestick patterns and on-chain data, predicting that ETH may reach 10,000 by October next year, suggesting a short-term target of 5,000, emphasizing ETH's core position as the 'Financial 3.0' settlement layer. Coal Doctor shares his experience of buying ETH for several dozen dollars years ago, believing it has strong anti-dip properties, with institutional funds shifting from BTC to ETH Treasury, expecting to outperform BTC in the short term (1-3 years), but long-term competition from 'Ethereum killers' may affect it, suggesting earning BTC profits with ETH.
The possibility of a hundredfold coin myth: Coal Doctor and A God are cautiously optimistic.
Qie Ge inquires whether there are still opportunities for hundredfold or thousandfold public chains in the crypto circle. Coal Doctor believes the difficulty has increased: adoption of cryptocurrency is high, the dividend period is diminishing, compliant funds are flowing towards ETFs rather than altcoins, and an explosion in coin volume dilutes capital, making a comprehensive altcoin season unlikely; only tracks like AI, DeFi, and RWA may hold phased opportunities. A God agrees that the difficulty of achieving a hundredfold coin is high, with tenfold already considerable, suggesting focusing on BTC, ETH, and ecosystems, while paying attention to opportunities in Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks, emphasizing that interest rate cuts and monetary easing may bring several times of growth.
Summary and outlook: dynamic full position and risk management.
A God summarizes: On-chain data shows long-term holders distributing 200,000 chips (26% progress), and at 80% it may be close to the top. He suggests tracking industry data to reinforce holding faith, prioritizing BTC and ETH, and then considering opportunities in ecosystems and Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks.
Coal Doctor summarizes: The bull market is not over, and BTC demonstrates gold-like safe-haven properties, with declines potentially smaller than before. He recommends using BTC as the base asset, adopting a dynamic full position strategy: holding BTC as a hedge during declines and rotating into other coins during rises to ensure that one does not underperform BTC.
Qie Ge concludes: The market seems to be consolidating but suddenly spikes, with RWA and on-chain U.S. stocks possibly holding opportunities, but timing and conditions are crucial. He encourages following Techub News, downloading the app to earn points, and attending the Bitcoin Asia Summit, wishing the audience success in managing risks and acquiring wealth.
This episode (Unprotected in the Crypto Circle) explores bull market dynamics, RWA potential, and public chain prospects from an open perspective, providing rational guidance and forward-looking insights for investors. We look forward to meeting again next Tuesday and Thursday at 19:30 in UTC+8!
