In the past few trading days, Bitcoin (BTC) has continuously found support in the $112,000 area, especially on the 4-hour chart, where it has initially formed a bottom reversal pattern. Yesterday's candlestick further strengthened this signal — bullish buying gradually returns, and bottom signals become increasingly clear.

It is worth mentioning that the return of Coinbase premiums is indicating that US stock capital is once again pouring into the crypto market. This phenomenon usually represents institutional funds re-entering BTC, providing real support for mid- to short-term rebounds.

ETH stands back above $3700, with on-chain signals indicating strong accumulation completion

Ethereum (ETH), as the 'directional marker' among mainstream market coins, was the first to return above $3700 during this round of adjustment, clearly outperforming most altcoins. Combined with the recent three-day candlestick trend, its technical structure shows highly bullish signs:

  • The last three-day candlestick formed a piercing pattern, a typical reversal signal;

  • The pullback trading volume continues to shrink, with a clear retreat of bearish strength;

  • Repeated dips have not broken key support, enhancing bottom stability;

  • Highs and lows are gradually rising, still operating between the upper middle band of the Bollinger Bands;

  • RSI values are stable in the neutral to strong region, with momentum indicators gently rising;

  • The moving average system has gradually converged and shows signs of bullish arrangement.

Overall, ETH has basically completed its consolidation and the probability of breaking through the resistance zone is rapidly increasing.

Altcoins: Structural market absence, trading opportunities concentrated in sentiment sectors

Currently, altcoins overall still lack systematic market support, it is recommended to maintain light positions or stay out. However, this does not mean there are no opportunities in the market; certain segments driven by sentiment and narratives still provide trading opportunities for short-term capital.

The four major narrative directions currently attracting market attention include:

  • AI

  • RWA (Real World Assets)

  • Layer 2

  • Meme

Particularly in the Meme sector, it is gradually becoming the main 'exit channel' for retail funds. For example, classic Meme projects on the Solana chain such as #Bonk and #Pump still maintain a certain market heat. In the recent rotation market, tokens like #LIZARD, #Spark, #bstr, #Mad have shown short-term explosive power, but their commonality is: they rise quickly and fall hard.

For such projects, the key strategy can be summed up in one sentence: 'Take the profit and run, do not get attached to the battle.'

Meanwhile, although the #SEI chain has not yet erupted in a strong meme wave, once a landmark currency ignites the market, tool tokens around its ecosystem will quickly 'ignite'. This round of movement may be analogous to LayerZero's structure before its popularity.

DeFi enthusiasm rekindled: stablecoin trading volume hits a new high, and ETH's breakthrough may just be the beginning

Strong signals are coming from on-chain data:

  • In July, on-chain stablecoin trading volume surpassed $1.5 trillion, setting a historical record;

  • Ethereum price rebounded strongly, returning to a key range;

  • DeFi's total TVL reached $179 billion, marking a return of capital;

  • USDC has become the most commonly used stablecoin, while the lending demand for USDT has doubled.

These data collectively indicate: the DeFi ecosystem is rapidly heating up, and the growth of stablecoins is driving the expansion of the entire on-chain financial market.

However, at the same time, the auditing and reserve security issues of USDC are still a continuous concern for the market. The upcoming battle of stablecoins (USDC vs USDT) may become a key variable determining the intensity of the DeFi ecosystem's explosion.

On the macro level: the September FOMC meeting may become a market turning point.

Macroeconomic policies will become the biggest catalyst for short-term market direction.

According to the latest interest rate futures pricing, the probability of a rate cut in September has reached 92%. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds rate target to around 4% at the FOMC meeting on September 17. This means that a new round of substantial liquidity release may be imminent.

It is worth noting: every major market wave in history has almost always occurred against the backdrop of intensified 'expectation differences'. Currently, the market is at a critical stage of this kind of macro and technical resonance.

Summary: Structural reversal signals have emerged, and the market is expected to enter a main upward phase.

Considering technical patterns, on-chain data, and macro factors, the current market state can be summarized as follows:

  • BTC: Confirmed support at $112,000 twice, with a 4-hour structure forming a bottoming pattern, but further confirmation of trading volume is needed;

  • ETH: The three-day line structure clearly indicates bullishness; holding above $3700, $4000 may just be the starting point for an upward attack;

  • Altcoins: No systemic explosion, but sentiment sectors like Meme still have short-term opportunities;

  • DeFi: TVL and stablecoin trading volume exploding; the competition between USDC and USDT may trigger the next wave of growth;

  • Macro catalysts: The September FOMC may bring a policy turning point, and market sentiment will change accordingly.

Currently, it is the key phase of structural breakout before accumulation, and opportunities are gradually becoming apparent. Patience, light positions, and waiting for key confirmation signals are the most prudent strategies at this stage.