Bloodbath in the crypto world! Trump's executive order triggers a massive ETH rally, with a battle for survival at $3900 tonight!
Policy bomb detonates the crypto world: 401(k) pensions enter the crypto market.
U.S. President Trump signed an executive order today, allowing $9 trillion worth of 401(k) retirement funds to be directly invested in cryptocurrencies, gold, and other alternative assets! This news is like a deep-water bomb, directly igniting the Ethereum (ETH) market—within 24 hours, ETH violently surged from $3574 to $3728, with a daily increase of over 4% and trading volume skyrocketing to $7 billion!
According to Bloomberg reports, this policy will completely break the traditional pension rule of 'only investing in stocks and bonds', with institutions like BlackRock and Blackstone already eager to move. Data shows that if 10% of the 401(k) funds flow into the crypto market, it will bring an additional $870 billion, equivalent to 22% of the current total market capitalization of the crypto market! As the leading public chain, ETH will become the preferred target for institutional funds.
Technical life-and-death battle: Is $3900 within reach?
From the market data, ETH is facing a critical decision:
Upper resistance level at $3700: The BOLL indicator's upper band ($3705) and the Fibonacci 0.0% retracement level ($3825) create dual pressure, and caution is needed for potential profit-taking.
Support level at $3542 below: Since July, this price level has effectively supported three times, combined with current gas fees dropping to $0.5, the proportion of small transactions has surged to 39%, indicating strong retail investor support.
Notably, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts remains positive, but the long-short ratio is only 1.2:1, indicating that the market is not blindly bullish. Technical analyst William Clemente points out: "The NVT ratio has dropped to historical lows, which signals that the price is undervalued, but caution is warranted regarding short-term overbought pullbacks."
Institutional silent battle: BlackRock and others are quietly building positions.
Although the policy details have yet to be finalized, institutions are already voting with real money:
Coinbase data shows: The ETH holdings of institutional wallet addresses have surged by 470,000 over the past 30 days, valued at over $1.9 billion.
SEC filings reveal: BlackRock's ETH trust holdings reach 832,000, a 218% increase from Q4 2024.
On-chain data: The number of active ETH addresses reaches 1.07 million/day, surpassing the peak of the 2021 bull market by 23%.
Tonight's line of life and death: $3900 or $3700?
Combining favorable policies and technical aspects, two major scenarios are proposed:
Optimistic scenario: If the details of the 401(k) policy are clarified tonight, institutional funds are expected to accelerate their entry, and ETH is likely to break through the $3825 resistance level, aiming for $3900. However, caution is required for a potential false breakout and subsequent pullback at the BOLL upper band ($3705).
Conservative scenario: ETH may pull back near $3600. However, the strong support level at $3542 remains, so there is no need for excessive panic.
For ordinary retail investors, three major suggestions are given:
Focus on spot trading, leverage as a supplement: Allocate 60% of funds to ETH spot and participate in staking, 30% to Layer 2 ecosystem tokens (such as ARB, OP), and 10% for hedging options trading.
Beware of the 'policy delay' trap: If Trump's executive order is not signed before August 15, prepare for a potential short-term pullback.
Pay attention to the 'safe harbor' mechanism: The Department of Labor will issue regulatory details, and custody requirements, information disclosure, and other terms may affect liquidity for small and medium platforms.
ETH's technical aspects face a key resistance level at $3820, and caution is needed for potential overbought pullbacks in the short term, but the strong support at $3542 combined with institutional accumulation provides a safety cushion. The funding rate is positive but the long-short ratio is cautious, and the historically low NVT ratio suggests undervaluation. If it breaks through $3850, it is expected to challenge $3900; if there is a policy delay, there is a probability of pulling back to $3700, but structural capital inflows support the long-term trend.
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