The technical, news, and funding aspects perfectly resonated on the 1-hour K-line chart, and this rapid surge of ETH is clearly a grand carnival meticulously orchestrated by capital!
Today, ETH soared from 3590 like a runaway wild horse to 3697; this seemingly sudden 'crazy surge' is actually the concentrated explosion after the forces on the bullish side secretly maneuvered and built momentum. Next, let’s unravel the intricacies and delve into the spectacular drama behind this.
Act One: Technical aspects 'ignite', bears suffer 'massacre'.
Before the surge, ETH was like a 'caged beast' trapped at the lower Bollinger Band, feeling suppressed. However, three consecutive bullish candles forcefully broke through the middle band, causing the bears to panic like ants on a hot pan — the Bollinger Band width expanded explosively from ±1.2% to ±2.5%, akin to a spring compressed to its limit; once released, the rebound force is astonishing, directly triggering a chain reaction of short cover.
Even more astonishing is the shocking change in trading volume. In the brief half-hour from 21:30 to 22:00, the trading volume soared from an average of 4000 ETH to 12,000 ETH, a threefold increase! Meanwhile, MACD formed a golden cross below the zero line, and RSI surged from an extreme oversold zone of 29.5 to 58.7. The algorithmic trading system, sensing these signals, unhesitatingly activated the 'crazy buying mode'.
In my view, the underlying logic of the technical aspects triggering the surge is essentially the 'self-fulfilling expectation'. When numerous technical indicators simultaneously emit 'upward signals', market participants act with real money, pushing the price higher all the way. Just like in October 2023, when BTC broke through 35000, it was also the resonance of the Bollinger Band, MACD, and RSI triple indicators that propelled it through the waves to 42000.
Act Two: The news front 'adds fuel', with three major drivers taking turns to exert force.
US stocks open 'leading the charge': At 21:30, the Nasdaq opened high, tech stocks rejoiced collectively, and Coinbase (COIN.O), closely linked to ETH, also rose by 2.3%. The crypto market is known for being 'high risk and high reward', and under the expectation of improved macro liquidity, it ignited instantly — much like BTC skyrocketing by 50% within a week during the Fed's massive money printing in March 2020.
Trump 'stirs the pot': At 22:01, Trump announced tariffs on India, which acted like a heavy bomb thrown into the market, causing crude oil (WTI) prices to break through 83 USD, sharply raising energy inflation expectations. Historical data shows that during energy crises, the correlation between ETH and crude oil reached as high as 0.67 (for example, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022). Thus, the market naturally regards ETH as an 'anti-inflation treasure' and rushes to buy.
EIA inventory 'black swan' event delivers a fatal blow: At 22:30, crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 3.029 million barrels, causing the dollar index to plummet by 0.4%. Funds, like sharks smelling blood, immediately flocked to the crypto market, attempting to hedge against the risk of fiat currency depreciation. As a highly liquid 'leading altcoin', ETH naturally became the preferred target for capital — just like when the dollar weakened in May 2021, ETH surged by 40% in one week.
Act Three: On-chain data 'solid proof', whales and bears 'dance together, lifting the sedan'.
Whales are secretly positioning: At 21:42, a mysterious address starting with 0x7f3 withdrew 12,000 ETH (approximately 44 million USD) from Binance. Such large-scale operations are clearly not conducted by ordinary retail investors, but rather institutions quietly accumulating shares at low levels, laying the groundwork for the subsequent rise.
Bears are forced to 'surrender': The perpetual contract funding rate quickly flipped from -0.018% to +0.0062%, with short position liquidations amounting to 120 million USD. This reminds one of August 2023, when ETH broke through 2000 USD, and short position liquidations exceeded 800 million USD, directly driving the price up by 15%.
Options market 'bets on a major rise': The 1-week implied volatility surged by 15%, and the trading volume of call options with an exercise price of 3700 dramatically increased. This indicates that professional investors have started to bet on ETH 'breaking through 3700', filled with confidence for the future market.
Key resistance level: 3690 is the bears' graveyard, and 3697 is the Fibonacci checkpoint.
3690 is the 'stop-loss headquarters' for short positions on August futures contracts; once it breaks through, programmatic trading will automatically follow suit, creating strong upward momentum. However, 3697 happens to be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, so encountering resistance here is normal.
Market outlook: Keep an eye on these two key points!
In the short term, 3700 is a critical 'line of life and death'. If ETH can steadily stay above 3700 and successfully test 3660 (where the previous high turns into a support level) without breaking down, it is highly likely to challenge 3750; however, if it falls below 3660, it may retest 3600. Additionally, personnel changes at the Federal Reserve pose a potential risk bomb. For instance, if the new board member makes hawkish remarks, it may trigger market concerns about liquidity tightening, causing the crypto market to plunge first.
Do you think this wave of ETH is a 'temporary technical rebound', or the 'beginning of a new major upward wave'? Feel free to share your insights in the comments. If the number of likes exceeds 100, I will provide a detailed breakdown next time on 'how to use options to hedge against such volatile market conditions'!
I am the captain, an analyst in the crypto space who dares to speak the truth. There are no deities in the crypto world, only smart people who can read signals. The captain's articles do not boast or create illusions, but teach you practical survival skills. Follow @船长趋势 for daily strategies from the village, and know in advance.