Brothers and sisters in the crypto world, today's market is like riding a rocket, so thrilling! U.S. President Trump signed an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement funds of up to $9 trillion to directly invest in cryptocurrencies, gold, and other alternative assets. This news is like a heavy 'nuclear bomb', stirring up huge waves in the crypto market!
This policy is significant, directly breaking the old rule of traditional pensions 'only investing in stocks and bonds'. Financial giants like BlackRock and Blackstone have long been eager to jump in. Data shows that if 10% of the 401(k) funds flow into the crypto market, it could amount to as much as $870 billion, equivalent to 22% of the current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies! And ETH, as the leader in the public chain sector, naturally becomes a 'hot cake' in the eyes of institutional investors.
From the market performance, ETH is like a wild horse that has broken free. Within 24 hours, the price violently surged from $3,574 to $3,728, with a daily increase of over 4% and trading volume skyrocketing to $7 billion! This growth has excited many in the crypto community.
However, ETH is now at a critical moment, facing a life-or-death decision on the technical front. The upper resistance level is at $3,700, with the BOLL upper band ($3,705) and the Fibonacci 0.0% retracement line ($3,825) acting like two mountains, forming a double pressure. The risk of profit-taking in the short term must be guarded against. But the lower support level of $3,542 should not be underestimated; since July, this price level has successfully held three times. Moreover, the gas fee has dropped to $0.50, with the proportion of small transactions skyrocketing to 39%, indicating strong buying power from retail investors.
Let's take another look at the actions of institutions. Although the details of the policy have not yet fully materialized, they have already demonstrated their stance with real money. Data from Coinbase shows that the ETH holdings of institutional wallet addresses surged by 470,000 coins in the past 30 days, valued at over $1.9 billion. SEC filings also revealed that BlackRock's ETH trust holds 832,000 coins, a 218% increase compared to Q4 2024. On-chain data is even more impressive, with the number of active ETH addresses reaching 1.07 million per day, surpassing the peak of the 2021 bull market by 23%. There's also a small incident: the Solana network experienced a 7-hour outage yesterday, while the Ethereum client Prysm maintained a 99.998% online rate during stress tests. Funds are migrating from 'high-risk' public chains to the 'stable' Ethereum, with asset values crossing to Ethereum reaching $420 million in the past 30 days.
Tonight, ETH's fate hangs in the balance: will it surge to $3,900 or hover around $3,700? Considering the positive policies and technical aspects, there are two possibilities. Optimistically, if the details of the 401(k) policy are clarified tonight, and institutional funds accelerate their entry, ETH is expected to break the $3,825 resistance and charge towards $3,900. But we must also be cautious of a false breakout followed by a retracement at the BOLL upper band ($3,705). Conservatively, if the policy is delayed, short-term profit-taking may occur, and ETH might retrace to around $3,600. However, the strong support at $3,542 remains, so there is no need for excessive panic.
For us ordinary retail investors, I have three major suggestions. First, focus on spot trading and use leverage as a supplement. Allocate 60% of your funds to ETH spot and participate in staking, 30% to Layer 2 ecosystem tokens (like ARB, OP), and 10% for hedging options trading. Second, beware of the 'policy delay' trap. If Trump's executive order is not signed by August 15, be cautious of short-term pullbacks. Third, pay attention to the 'safe harbor' mechanism. The Department of Labor will issue regulatory details, and requirements for custody and information disclosure may affect the liquidity of small and medium-sized platforms.
ETH is facing a critical pressure level at $3,820 on the technical front, with short-term overbought pullback risks. However, the strong support at $3,542 and institutional accumulation provide safety. Funding rates are normal, but the long-short ratio is cautious, and the NVT ratio is at a historical low, suggesting undervaluation. If it breaks through $3,850, it is expected to challenge $3,900; if the policy is delayed, a retracement to $3,700 is also possible, but structural capital inflows support the long-term trend.
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