SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has once again stirred the crypto community by reaffirming her firm stance against exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on digital assets. While the market previously expected a high chance of approval for an XRP ETF — with odds once soaring above 90% — sentiment has now dropped to just 65%, largely due to Crenshaw’s unwavering opposition.
🔹 13 Votes, 13 Times “No”
So far this year, the SEC has held 13 internal votes regarding various crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), including ETFs from Bitwise, Grayscale, and iShares. In every case, Crenshaw was the sole dissenting vote, with other commissioners approving the measures by a 3:1 margin.
As the only Democrat currently serving on the commission, Crenshaw is sending a "strong signal" of her continued resistance to crypto ETFs, according to journalist Eleanor Terrett. This resistance could directly impact the prospects of an XRP ETF, as her stance may prevent approval.
🔹 Criticism Beyond ETFs: Stablecoins and Staking
Crenshaw’s skepticism goes beyond ETFs. She has publicly criticized recent SEC staff guidance on liquid staking, calling it legally fragile and based on questionable assumptions that could mislead industry participants. She has also strongly opposed staff recommendations on USD-pegged stablecoins, calling them “legally and factually flawed.” Crenshaw warned that the use of marketing language like “digital dollar” distorts the real risks of stablecoins and misleads investors.
This ongoing resistance could pose significant challenges to Ripple and its ambitions for an XRP ETF, especially if Crenshaw’s influence within the Commission grows.
🔹 Market Sentiment Shifts: XRP ETF Odds Drop
According to Polymarket data, the probability of an XRP ETF being approved recently dropped to 65%, closely tied to recent SEC voting patterns. Though odds later bounced back to 71%, they remain well below the highs seen after the July 18 launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on NYSE Arca.
🔹 Hope Remains – Especially with BlackRock in the Picture
Despite Crenshaw’s opposition, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas remains optimistic. He believes the SEC may still approve altcoin-based ETFs like XRP, particularly since XRP now meets the SEC’s new listing requirements — including trading derivatives for at least six months.
Speculation was further fueled by the expected appearance of BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, Maxwell Stein, at the Ripple Swell 2025 conference — sparking rumors that a BlackRock XRP ETF may be on the horizon.
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