Next Tuesday's CPI data should be the most important bellwether.

This CPI directly influences whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Of course, the reasons have been explained many times: if inflation is low, the Fed is likely to cut rates, weakening the US dollar, which is a big boon for cryptocurrencies because more money will flow into the market.

There are essentially two scenarios:

1. If the data falls short of expectations (good news): This indicates inflation is under control, and high-risk, volatile coins (such as the $SOL ecosystem, RWA concept coins, and smaller second-layer ecosystem tokens) will see a surge.

2. If the data is similar to expectations, or even slightly higher (bad news): The cryptocurrency market will likely experience an initial dip before gradually stabilizing.

Often, sudden surges or plunges immediately after data release are often caused by algorithmic trading and bots, and are easily false alarms. The true trend typically emerges 30 to 90 minutes later, once the trend of US Treasuries and the US dollar becomes clear.

If the data is positive, but the US dollar strengthens and Treasury yields rise, this indicates other negative factors in the market, and it's time to cut losses quickly. #下一任美联储主席人选