Introduction
On the evening of August 6, Jinse Finance's Twitter Space focused on the topic of "With the probability of a rate cut in September rising sharply, can Bitcoin break the August downturn curse and surpass $150,000?" inviting several industry guests to engage in in-depth discussions on hot topics such as rate cut expectations, Bitcoin trends, global inflation risks, U.S. regulatory shifts, and stablecoin policies.
The guests participating in this discussion included: Kiki, head of the Twinkle market, veteran trader Crypto Monkey, industry veteran Jessie, and Sicheng, a practitioner in digital banking.
Rate cut expectations soar: Did the market ferment early in August? Or is it waiting for confirmation?
According to the FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Has such a high expectation already been reflected in market sentiment? This topic became the focus of the opening.
Monkey Brother stated that although the current data and institutional predictions for a rate cut are extremely high, "no one can be sure whether there will be a rate cut in September." He believes that there are still opportunities for performance in August, "From a trading perspective, it is a consolidation, but it won't drop too much or rise too sharply."
He admitted: "If you are a contract player in August, I think you should be cautious... If you are a secondary market trader, I currently do not recommend touching it, because there are no hot topics, no trends, and liquidity is insufficient in the current altcoins."
Kiki believes from a data perspective: "Such high expectations for rate cuts may reduce market tension, providing some support for Bitcoin, but the market has already reflected some of this sentiment in advance... Currently, trading volume continues to decline, and funds are relatively cautious."
She further pointed out: "The August consolidation is not very weak; it's more like a strong consolidation at a high level. Long-term holders have not significantly reduced their positions, essentially waiting for a new catalyst, such as a rate cut or institutional re-entry into ETFs."
Bitcoin: Is the consolidation a buildup or a lack of strength?
Currently, Bitcoin has been consolidating below $120,000 for nearly a month, and the common question in the market is: Is this a buildup before a rise, or a downturn in the bull market?
Kiki holds a positive attitude towards this: "The current structure is healthy; unless it falls below the strong support of $110,000, I believe it is all a strong consolidation." She pointed out that on-chain data shows "long-term holders have not significantly reduced their positions."
Monkey Brother stated that this cycle could be a "super cycle". He predicts that the long-term target price could reach $200,000, but "it won't happen overnight; it will be a slow rise and grind." As for the timing of the breakout, "no one can be certain, but the mid to long-term upward trend is certain."
Do altcoins and memecoins still have opportunities?
When discussing the current performance of the secondary market, Monkey Brother did not shy away from expressing disappointment. In contrast, Monkey Brother believes that memecoins offer more short-term trading opportunities: "The memecoin track is mainstream; if you follow the hot topics closely, there are opportunities... The larger the weight and the greater the angle, the higher the ceiling."
He also mentioned, "Like Elon Musk tweeting or a celebrity promoting, the angle of the hot topic is high, and there are basically opportunities for waves; the key is 'not to be greedy.'"
U.S. tariffs increase inflationary pressures: Will dollar capital flow into the crypto market?
Regarding whether the new round of U.S. tariff policies will drive up global inflation, leading capital to flow from dollar assets to the crypto market, the guests had differing opinions.
Jessie holds a negative attitude: "The dollar is too strong; it can't easily flow out. The main storyline globally is still the confrontation between the U.S. and China financial systems; other countries can't compete with the dollar."
"The RMB only accounts for 3% of global foreign exchange reserves; don't talk about capital outflow, that's unrealistic. The dollar's hegemony is much stronger than we imagine."
Sicheng gave a more moderate judgment: "Indeed, some funds may flow into the crypto market, but they won't directly buy Bitcoin or Ethereum; instead, they will enter in layers, such as first allocating to financial products, stablecoins, and RWA-type assets."
He added: "Even if the rate cut really happens, it will take 12 months for funds to flow into the crypto market, and it will not immediately reflect in prices."
Is the SEC's shift in regulatory attitude a turning point for market policy?
The U.S. SEC's recent launch of "Project Crypto" is seen as a turning point from repression to clear rules and support for innovation. Guests generally believe that this series of measures sends positive signals.
Sicheng provided a detailed overview of the policies: "From the Rooftop Act, stablecoin legislation to Project Crypto, the underlying logic is to maintain dollar sovereignty and promote the compliance of the payment system."
He pointed out: "In the future, the U.S. may allow taxes to be paid in stablecoins, which has enormous fiscal revenue potential. The SEC's shift is not accidental, but part of the overall national strategy."
Jessie also highly praised this: "Project Crypto is the biggest regulatory benefit I have seen in many years... Stablecoins will reconstruct the global financial payment logic and extend dollar hegemony."
She bluntly said, "Don't say you're attracting traditional institutions to enter; a whole bunch of institutions are already entering... In Hong Kong, almost every week, traditional financial institutions are holding closed-door meetings on virtual assets."
Crypto payments, RWA, stablecoins: The next wave is brewing
Sicheng specifically mentioned that the global application scenarios for stablecoins are rapidly expanding: "Its core advantages are clearing efficiency, low settlement costs, and smooth global payments... Compared to the SWIFT system, it has generational crushing advantages."
He also mentioned, "The RWA project is also an emerging direction; projects like Ondo and Maple have recently gained attention... The core lies in connecting on-chain assets with off-chain credit."
Jessie even believes that "stablecoins are not the 'leftovers' we imagine, but the core pillar of future financial reform... Essentially, this is an extension of the U.S. government's promotion of dollar hegemony."
She encourages retail users to actively pay attention to these trends: "Don't think that just because stablecoins sound sophisticated, you can't participate. There are certainly paths for ordinary users to enter this field, such as crypto payment cards, overseas U cards, etc."
Conclusion: The macro favorable conditions and narrative shifts in the crypto market, where is it headed?
The guests in this Space discussed the crypto market at a critical juncture from multiple perspectives, including macroeconomic factors, market sentiment, regulatory shifts, and narrative changes. In the discussion, there were both rational macro judgments and real market feelings; both a firm belief in the long-term value of Bitcoin and sharp insights into short-term speculative opportunities. Jinse Finance will continue to focus on the evolution of the crypto market during the rate cut cycle, bringing readers the most cutting-edge interpretations and voices in real-time.
Live replay link: https://x.com/i/spaces/1djxXVVVjkOGZ
Note: This article is based on the guest's live discussion and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.
