Bloody storm! Unemployment benefit data tonight triggers a life-or-death battle between ETH bulls and bears, with 3800 or 3600 being the only decision!
Tonight at 8:30 PM, US initial jobless claims data will be a crucial guillotine for both ETH bulls and bears! The middle Bollinger Band at 3650 has become a life-or-death barrier. Following the release of the data, the price will either break through the upper band at 3710 and head straight for 3800, or plummet below 3590 and head for below 3600! In this bloody battle, which side are you betting on?
Technical analysis: The Bollinger Band noose has tightened, and the decisive battle for the middle track is about to begin!
The current ETH price is stuck near the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3650, and the upper and lower track ranges are compressed to 3590-3710. The market is in a "death silence" on the eve of a change.
If the data is bullish (unemployment benefits less than the expected 240,000), the price will directly break through the middle line of 3650, relying on the upward channel of the 4-hour Bollinger Band to launch a charge towards the upper line of 3710! If the MACD golden cross is formed and the volume increases, the 3800 mark will be within reach, and it may even take advantage of the momentum to break through the high of this month!
If the data is negative (unemployment benefits > 240,000 expected), the middle line of 3650 will become a graveyard for bulls, and the price may directly break through the lower line of 3590, triggering a stampede of stop-loss orders! If the 1-hour MA180 and MA60 form a double pressure, the 3600 support will be useless, and the area around 3500 points may become a feast for short sellers!
News: Is unemployment benefit data “poison” or “aphrodisiac”?
Last week's non-farm payroll data triggered the "Sam Rule," and the market has fallen into a panic of "recession trading"! If the unemployment benefit data tonight is another surprise:
Bullish scenario (decline in headcount): The market may interpret this as a "soft landing of the economy," with risk appetite rebounding. ETH, as a highly volatile asset, may be sought after by funds, directly replicating the crazy rally of 12% after the bullish data in March 2025!
Negative scenario (increase in users): The Fed's expected rate cut may be postponed, the US dollar index rebounds strongly, and ETH, as a risky asset, may suffer a "double kill"! Refer to the tragic case of ETH plummeting 8% in a single day after the negative data in May 2024!
Bloody prediction: 3800 or 3600, which will come true?
Path to 3800: Requires "positive data + increased trading volume + Bitcoin's linkage to break through 120,000." If the number of unemployment benefits falls below 230,000, ETH could leverage this momentum to break through the upper limit of 3720, triggering a wave of short stop-losses. 3800 is only the first target!
3600 path: If the data exceeds 250,000, the lower limit of the 1-hour Bollinger Band at 3590 will be lost, and panic selling may create a "gold pit"! However, be wary of institutional bottom-fishing funds counterattack near 3500, forming a "V-shaped reversal trap"!
ETH is currently stuck at the middle Bollinger Band's "lifeline" of 3650, with the upper and lower bands converging to the 3590-3710 range. A market reversal is imminent! If the data is bullish, the 4-hour upward channel will help push the price through the upper band of 3710, and the MACD golden cross with increased volume may point directly to 3800. If the data is bearish, the 1-hour MA180 and MA60 will double pressure, and the lower band of 3590 may fall, making the 3600 support level meaningless. Panic selling may plunge directly into the "golden pit" of 3500! The technical analysis shows a double-edged sword!
After tonight's data is released, ETH volatility may soar to over 100%! Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, please buckle up! This is a life-or-death game where your money is at stake!
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