Bloodbath in the crypto circle! Trump's executive order ignites a massive ETH rally, tonight's battle at the $3900 critical line!
Policy bomb detonates the crypto circle: $401(k) pensions enter the crypto market.
U.S. President Trump signed an executive order today, allowing $9 trillion in 401(k) retirement funds to be directly invested in cryptocurrencies, gold, and other alternative assets! This news is like a depth charge, directly igniting the Ethereum (ETH) market—within 24 hours, ETH surged violently from $3574 to $3728, with a daily increase of over 4% and trading volume skyrocketing by $7 billion!
According to Bloomberg, this policy will completely break the traditional rule of pension funds only investing in stocks and bonds. Institutions like BlackRock and Blackstone are already eager to act. Data shows that if 10% of 401(k) funds flow into the crypto market, it will bring in an additional $87 billion, equivalent to 22% of the current total market cap of the crypto market! As the leading public chain, ETH will become the preferred target for institutional funds.
Technical battle for survival: Is $3900 within reach?
From the market data, ETH is facing a critical decision:
Resistance level above at $3700: The BOLL upper band ($3705) and the Fibonacci 0.0% retracement line ($3825) form a dual pressure point, and caution is needed for profit-taking in the short term.
Support level at $3542 below: since July, this price level has effectively supported three times, and with current gas fees dropping to $0.5, the proportion of small transactions has surged to 39%, indicating strong retail buying power.
It is worth noting that the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts remains positive, but the long-short ratio is only 1.2:1, indicating that the market is not blindly bullish. Technical analyst William Clemente pointed out: "The NVT ratio has dropped to historic lows, signaling that prices are undervalued, but be cautious of short-term overbought pullbacks."
Institutional covert battle: Blackstone is quietly accumulating.
Although the policy details have not been finalized, institutions have already voted with real money:
Coinbase data shows: the ETH holdings of institutional wallet addresses surged by 470,000 coins in the past 30 days, worth over $1.9 billion.
SEC filings reveal: BlackRock's ETH trust holdings have reached 832,000 coins, an increase of 218% compared to Q4 2024.
On-chain data: the number of active ETH addresses reached 1.07 million per day, surpassing the peak of the 2021 bull market by 23%.
What is more concerning is that the Solana network experienced a 7-hour outage yesterday, while the Ethereum client Prysm maintained a 99.998% uptime during stress testing. Funds are migrating from "high-risk" public chains to the "stable" Ethereum, with asset value crossing to Ethereum reaching $420 million in the past 30 days.
Tonight's critical line: $3900 or $3700?
Combining favorable policies with technical aspects, here are two major scenarios:
Optimistic scenario: If the 401(k) policy details are clarified tonight, institutional funds will accelerate entry, and ETH is expected to break through the $3825 resistance level, targeting $3900. However, caution is needed for a pullback after a false breakout at the BOLL upper band ($3705).
Conservative scenario: If the policy implementation is delayed, short-term profit-taking may occur, and ETH could pull back to around $3600. However, the strong support at $3542 remains, so there is no need for excessive panic.
For ordinary retail investors, here are three key suggestions:
Focus on spot trading primarily, with leverage as a supplement: allocate 60% of funds to ETH spot and participate in staking, 30% to Layer 2 ecosystem tokens (like ARB, OP), and 10% for hedging options trading.
Beware of the "policy delay" trap: if Trump's executive order is not signed before August 15, be cautious of short-term pullbacks.
Pay attention to the "safe harbor" mechanism: the Department of Labor will subsequently introduce regulatory details, and custody requirements, information disclosure, and other clauses may impact the liquidity of small to medium platforms.
ETH's technical situation is facing a key resistance level at $3820. In the short term, caution is needed for overbought pullbacks, but the strong support at $3542 combined with institutional accumulation provides a safety cushion. The funding rate is positive, but the long-short ratio is cautious, and the historically low NVT ratio suggests undervaluation. If it breaks through $3850, it could challenge $3900; if the policy is delayed, a pullback to $3700 is possible, but structural capital inflows support the long-term trend.
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