Trump has staged three "unexpected" performances, leaving the market in a daze. Gold initially surged before retreating at the opening, and the crypto market is likely to ride the roller coaster as well. Let’s get straight to the point:
First, a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, but a "green channel" for building factories in the U.S.
Trump declared: "A 100% tax on chips and semiconductors!" But if you build a factory in the U.S., you don’t have to pay this tax. This move clearly aims to force global chip manufacturers to relocate back to the U.S., but the global supply chain is already deeply intertwined. A sudden blow like this could drive chip costs sky-high, and related tech companies' stock prices might fluctuate, likely affecting tech sectors linked to the crypto market.
Second, tough measures on Russian oil, with India taking the hit first.
Trump signed an executive order raising the tariff on India’s purchases of Russian oil from 25% to 50%, effective in 21 days. He also hinted, "Another country buying Russian oil might also face taxes." This move targets Russia's energy forex, but the global energy market is already tight, and oil prices could rise further. With inflation pressures mounting, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may change. Currently, Bitcoin is closely tied to U.S. stocks and macro sentiments, and disruptions in the crypto market's capital flow are highly probable.
Third, the Federal Reserve is playing the "temporary worker" game, with the chairperson's selection hanging in the balance.
Trump plans to appoint a "temporary director" to fill the Federal Reserve vacancy, with a term lasting until January next year, after which a new chair will be announced. This maneuver is to occupy the position first and wait until next year to replace it with his own person, while not revealing the chairperson's identity in advance to keep the market guessing and maintain "suspense control." Any shift in Federal Reserve policy could easily cause Bitcoin and Ethereum to jump, and with uncertainty in personnel, the market nerves are likely to be even more strained.
Trump is pulling off "sudden attacks" again, with policies changing on a dime. Just as the market adjusts to the old rhythm, he switches to a new channel. In the short term, this will certainly increase uncertainty; the example of gold rising and then falling is telling. For the crypto market, any disturbance in macro sentiment will only lead to greater volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The more he stirs things up, the more the market focuses on his next move—this "attention economy" is something he seems to have figured out, but it leaves us watching the markets needing to be ready for anything.
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