CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn took advantage of today's downward momentum to publish a detailed 10-part analysis titled "Bitcoin Market Analysis" on X, analyzing the post-ATH context with detailed on-chain data and a clear technical analysis line. "Bitcoin has broken its all-time high, but the issue here is: long-term holders are [starting] to sell as prices rise," he writes, adding that what is important now is how the market will handle that supply above and around the breakout zone. In his view, the first pressure test is underway.

Has the Bitcoin bull run ended?

A series of posts revolves around a striking data point: "LTH selling pressure includes 80,000 BTC sold by Satoshi-era wallets." That description is how Maartunn interprets the unusual movement of eight "ancient" wallets in July that shifted about 80,000 BTC after around 14 years of inactivity through Galaxy Digital.

Aside from the drama of this single entity, Maartunn argues that the behavior of the entire group of holders is the dominating factor in the market. "Retail investors are coming in after hitting the ATH peak," he observes, describing a familiar pattern of excitement at the end of the cycle after Bitcoin surpassed the $120,000 mark in mid-July. That rally set a new record near $123,000 before the momentum gradually faded; the spot price is currently fluctuating between $113,000 and $115,000.

The bids have not completely disappeared. "New capital has helped buyers surge past the peak," Maartunn writes, pointing to balance sheet demand "from companies like Strategy and Metaplanet." These purchases can be verified. Strategy — now known as MicroStrategy — disclosed the purchase of 21,021 BTC from July 28 to August 3 at an average price of about $117,256, raising its total BTC holdings to approximately 628,791 BTC. Metaplanet, listed in Tokyo, bought an additional 463 BTC on August 4, increasing its total bond holdings to 17,595 BTC. However, the analyst noted that this corporate capital flow "is not enough to keep Bitcoin around $120,000."

This topic becomes more cautious when discussing short-term trades. "Short-term holders are starting to panic and sell at a loss," Maartunn writes, quantifying the actual loss events as 52,230 BTC (July 15–18), 42,493 BTC (July 24–28), and 70,028 BTC "after July 31." He calls the final loss notable "not only [in] scale but also in duration," arguing that the realization of prolonged STH losses is a pressure valve that often needs time to fully release. This is Maartunn's on-chain statistic; it has not been published individually by data providers as an aggregate.

The picture of cash flow from listed products has begun to resonate with that tension. "ETF funds are also seeing outflows," he remarks. Several tracking instruments have confirmed the decline: CoinShares recorded the first net outflow in 15 weeks (-$223 million) with Bitcoin funds leading at -$404 million, while daily figures this week showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen for several sessions, including a session drop of about -$196 million on Tuesday. The time frame may vary, but the trend is very clear: purchases from ETF funds are fluctuating within a range.

Technically, Maartunn focuses attention on the previous breakout zone. "Bitcoin is finding support around its previous ATH — about $112,000," he writes, pointing to the intersection between chart structure and on-chain price distribution. His on-chain map "supports this", marking "strong support in the range of $108,000–$112,000", an area where a large volume of cryptocurrency has changed hands last.

Context is very important. Bitcoin's all-time high in July reached around $123,000 by major standards - an extension of the strong bull run of 2025 - so calling $112,000 the "previous ATH" implies a short-term breakout before price discovery, rather than an absolute record. It is this nuance that is why Maartunn concludes with a condition: "So far in this cycle, we have not seen any previous ATHs broken... Until that changes, this looks like a normal pullback. But if we break below the previous ATH ($112,000), that would be a real change in market behavior."

In the short term, the reliability of that "shelf" around $108,000–$112,000 may be determined by whether the supply from long-term investors locking in profits, short-term investors at a loss, and ETF buybacks continue to exceed balance sheet demand and organic spot capital flow. If this shelf holds, Maartunn's base scenario is "a normal pullback" to alleviate the excess from the ATH push. He argues that if it clearly fails, the cycle will show the first significant breakdown of a previous breakout - a notable change in behavior rather than a narrative expression. $BTC