The Bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing conflicting signals: the RSI indicator suggests two opposing scenarios - a rise of the cryptocurrency to $119,000 or a drop to $95,000.

Let's figure out what is happening in the Bitcoin (BTC) market and what to expect from the cryptocurrency price.

Market sentiment on Bitcoin has become ambiguous

Bitcoin (BTC) faces two opposing scenarios as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows mixed signals. According to analyst Ali, the last two times the weekly RSI fell below the 14-period SMA, Bitcoin corrected by 20-30%.

Bitcoin RSI analysis. Source: Ali

"If history repeats itself, we could see a move down to $95,000!" commented Ali.

In the previous analysis, Arthur Hayes predicted a sharp correction in the cryptocurrency market. He forecasted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000, and Ethereum would hit $3,000.

Analyst Sykodelic noted that the RSI on the daily chart is at a level similar to previous lows around $98,000 and $76,000. This might indicate a weakening of short-term selling pressure and a potential accumulation point.

Analyst Caleb Franzen noted that Bitcoin has broken the lows defined by bullish RSI divergence. When the price drops but RSI does not follow (bullish divergence), it indicates a weakening of the downtrend. In contrast, bearish divergence occurs when the price rises while RSI falls, warning of a potential downward reversal.

Caleb believes this could lead to a bounce towards $119,000. However, this level is becoming critical; if the price breaks below it, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.

Possible scenario of BTC recovery to $119,000. Source: Caleb Franzen

A drop to $95,000 could become a "reloading phase" for reaccumulation. At the same time, the support area at $112,600 is considered a key level to maintain the recovery forecast.

If the price holds in this area and bullish divergence on the RSI is confirmed, a bounce to $119,000 would be justified. This requires confirmation from volume, moving averages, and daily closes above key levels to reduce the risk of false signals.

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