SOLV 0.04345: Bollinger Band Limit + Large Sell Wall, Bear Trap or Golden Pullback?

【Quick Overview】

Price is close to the upper Bollinger band but is facing a $135 million sell wall, with contract holdings decreasing for 7 consecutive days, the market is translating “fear” into “buying opportunities.”

【Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution】

1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC 0.04203 (230 million traded), the most concentrated area of long-short turnover, acts as the day's central axis.

2. High Volume Zone: HVN 0.04146-0.04241 forms a 5-layer thick cushion, price is likely to find support upon retreating to this area.

3. Low Volume Gap: LVN 0.04042-0.04099, 0.04497-0.04554, with a “void” above and below, both breakthrough and pullback will accelerate.

4. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: 0.04127-0.04402, current price is at the upper edge of the range, slightly overbought; if it breaks below 0.04203, it will return to the central axis.

Momentum Validation

• Up Vol 54% near POC, balanced between long and short;

• 0.04146 HVN Up Vol 46%, sellers slightly dominant;

• 0.04042-0.04099 LVN Up Vol 55%, if it breaks down with increased volume, downward space opens up.

Auxiliary Indicators

• Price > MA200 2.8%, bullish structure remains intact;

• Upper band resistance at 0.04344, RSI 58, not extreme;

• Contract holdings 24h -0.37%, funding rate slightly positive, bulls are retreating.

【Market Cycle】

Medium-term oscillation leaning bearish: VPVR shows the past 2 weeks in the 0.038-0.048 range, with a net outflow of 850 million contracts, part of the “reduced volume rebound” phase.

【Trading Strategy】

Direction: Short first then long in the short-term, using LVN false breakdown for long entry.

Aggressive:

• Enter near 0.04330 with a light short position, stop loss at 0.04365 (upper band + 0.5 ATR), target 0.04203 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.9.

Conservative:

• Wait for a pullback to 0.04165-0.04175 HVN, if a decrease in volume + PinBar occurs and Up Vol > 55%, go long, stop loss at 0.04140, target 0.04280, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.6.

Cautious:

• If there is an increased volume breakout at 0.04497 LVN, pullback to 0.04450-0.04460 to go long, stop loss at 0.04420, target 0.04554, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.

Risk Warning: If the 1h close falls below 0.04099 and Down Vol > 60%, abandon all long positions.

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