GMX surged 60% in volume within 24h, the price has broken out of the Bollinger Bands 2σ, short-term profit-taking pressure is overwhelming; however, the chips above POC 20.4 are firm, 20.5～22.9 becomes the last moat for bulls, a pullback that does not break can still enter, but if it loses, it will collapse rapidly.
[Key Interval Structure]
1. Value anchor: POC 20.43 (3.78 million GMX turnover, Up 91%), a pullback that doesn't break is considered the bullish bottom line.
2. High trading volume area:
• HVN1 18.27～18.99 (3.77 million GMX, Up 82%) — Strong buffer zone, easy to rebound when it pulls back to this level.
• HVN2 21.15～21.87 (2.96 million GMX, Up 100%) — Short-term pressure, breaking through opens up space above 25+.
3. Low trading volume gap:
• LVN 15.75～16.29 (430k GMX, Up 100%) — If it drops below 20.4, the price will quickly slide towards this range.
4. 70% trading volume coverage area: 16.11～33.75, current price 23.41 is at the upper edge of the range, short-term overbought.
[Momentum Validation]
• Up Volume 91% above POC, HVN1 Up 82%, bulls still control the market; however, 1h RSI is 85, deviation from MA200 reaches 71%, short-term needs to cool down.
• Contract positions increased by 120% in 24h, long-short ratio decreased from 1.25 to 1.09, funding rate -0.005, short covering pushes up, but the risk of chasing highs increases sharply.
[Market Cycle]
In the 'Acceleration Phase End': Volume-price divergence (spot net outflow -107k, contract net inflow +116k), if 20.4 is lost, it will enter a rapid correction phase.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Pullback to go long (steady):
Entry at 20.50 (LVN upper limit + POC resonance), stop loss at 19.40 (recent HVN outer side -0.5×ATR≈1.1), target 23.00/25.10, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.3.
2. Breakthrough to go long (aggressive):
Breakthrough and stabilize at 22.95 (HVN2 upper limit), re-enter at 22.70, stop loss at 22.10, target 26.00, risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.1.
3. Counter-trend short (conservative):
If it drops below 19.40 and 15m closes with volume (Down > 60%), short at 19.80, stop loss at 20.50, target 18.00, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.
Risk Warning: If it drops below 19.40 or the funding rate turns positive, the strategy becomes ineffective; macroeconomic negative news or a BTC flash crash will amplify the decline.
[LP Market Making Recommendation]
It is recommended to place both-sided orders in the 20.50～22.90 range:
• This area is located between POC and HVN2, with dense trading and low slippage;
• Volatility remains high (intraday amplitude > 15%), transaction fees + funding rate returns can cover impermanent loss;
• If the price breaks out of the range, you can immediately cancel the order to avoid unilateral risk.
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