August 6th Analysis by Yuge: Currently, $BTC is showing range-bound fluctuations, with the core range between 112650 USDT (strong support) and 115096.73 USDT (strong resistance). It is essential to focus on breakout signals at key price levels.
1. Core Situation
Trend Contradictions: Moving averages are in a bullish arrangement and there is a bullish engulfing pattern, leaning towards a bullish short-term outlook; however, trading volume has drastically decreased, and the movement lacks confirmation, resulting in a high risk of false breakouts.
Environmental Neutrality: Market sentiment and macro indicators (US Dollar Index, Treasury yield) show no obvious bias. News is mixed, with bullish factors (institutional financing, stablecoin adoption, ETF applications) coexisting alongside bearish factors (insufficient confidence from major players, whale sell-offs, fraud investigations), exacerbating sideways movement.
2. Key Signals
Technical Aspects
Price is above the moving averages, clearly defining the boundaries of support and resistance.
Insufficient trading volume is a major concern; if there is no increase in volume during a breakout at key levels, it is often an invalid breakout.
Environmental Aspects
There are no strong driving factors; both sentiment and macro pressure are neutral, making it difficult to form trend momentum.
3. Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: Sell High (Conservative)
Entry: 114893.13 USDT (near strong resistance)
Stop Loss: 115300 USDT (breaks resistance and increases volume)
Target: 113000 USDT
Logic: The probability of breaking the resistance level is low; capture pullback opportunities while being wary of increased volume breaking through.
Strategy 2: Buy Low (Aggressive)
Entry: 112650 USDT (strong support)
Stop Loss: 112400 USDT (falls below support and increases volume)
Target: 114500 USDT
Logic: Relying on support and a short-term bullish pattern, aim for a rebound while guarding against support failure.
4. Operational Warnings
The market lacks a clear trend; range trading must strictly enforce stop-loss measures, avoiding chasing up and down. A breakout at key levels requires confirmation of volume; otherwise, treat it as a continued range-bound condition.
