1. Regulatory Storm: From 'wild growth' to 'power harvesting'
The 'Stablecoin Regulatory Framework' recently promoted by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell marks the official entry of the cryptocurrency market into a strong regulatory era. In recent years, the stablecoin market has been chaotic — Terra's collapse, USDT reserve controversies, retail investors losing everything, and the regulatory vacuum becoming a paradise for speculators. Now, the US has finally taken action:
Bank-based stablecoins: directly regulated by the Federal Reserve, requiring 100% dollar reserves + real-time audits, exclusively for corporate cross-border payments.
Grassroots Stablecoins: SEC strictly checks transparency, prohibits 'air reserves', and retail transactions must undergo anti-money laundering review.
Subtext: Wall Street aims to monopolize the issuance rights of the 'digital dollar', and the future stablecoin market will be dominated by traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
Two, China's 'Double City Chronicles': Hong Kong's compliance and Shanghai's technological breakthrough
China has not sat idle, but is responding with a 'Hong Kong + Shanghai' dual-center strategy:
Hong Kong: The stablecoin regulations effective August 1 require issuers to have 100% reserves in dollars/Hong Kong dollars, and transactions must be traceable. HSBC and Ant Group have applied for licenses and may launch stablecoins linked to the digital yuan in the future.
Shanghai: Testing 'blockchain + cross-border payments', with fees reduced from 2% to 0.1%, and funds arriving in 10 minutes. Companies like Qibao High-Tech are exploring supply chain finance applications to pave the way for the internationalization of the digital yuan.
Opportunity point: Future cross-border payments may bypass SWIFT and directly use the 'Shanghai version stablecoin' or digital yuan.
Three, The Federal Reserve's ultimate weapon: the digital dollar is the 'trump card'
Powell supports stablecoin innovation while emphasizing 'digital dollar first' — because no matter how strong a stablecoin is, it is still 'private dollars', while the digital dollar is the Federal Reserve's own child.
USDT's fatal flaw: 1:1 pegged to the dollar? Actual reserves may be US Treasury bonds, commercial paper, or even junk bonds.
Advantages of the digital dollar: 100% backed by Federal Reserve credit, programmability (e.g., smart contracts), directly harvesting the global payment market.
Conspiracy theory: Wall Street pushes stablecoins, essentially helping the Federal Reserve educate the market and paving the way for the digital dollar.
4. Retail Survival Guide: Three ways to navigate the compliance era
Stay away from 'shady stablecoins': Check whether the held tokens undergo monthly audits (e.g., USDC audited by Deloitte, USDT only quarterly 'proof').
Layout for 'bank-based stablecoins': JPMorgan's JPM Coin and HSBC's HSBC Stablecoin will become mainstream, and related concept stocks (such as A-share fintech companies) may explode.
Bet on cross-border payment scenarios: Shanghai's blockchain cross-border payment pilot has covered study abroad and e-commerce, and may replace traditional remittances in the future.
Caijue Summary
This stablecoin war is essentially the ultimate game between dollar hegemony and digital currency sovereignty:
United States: Harvesting the market through regulation to clear obstacles for the digital dollar.
China: Competing for cross-border payment discourse with Hong Kong compliance + Shanghai technological breakthroughs.
Retail Investors: Either embrace compliance or be eliminated.
Remember: The winner in 2025 will not be the gamblers, but the 'smart money' that understands policy trends! Tonight in Caijue Village, we will break down the details of (Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulations) and discuss 'breakthroughs' to receive the (compliance stablecoin investment list)!
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