August 6, 2025
Last night's market saw a rise followed by a drop, and by the evening it was basically affected by Trump's public speech. What information did Trump reveal during his CNBC interview? Let's sort it out together. First, he expressed dissatisfaction with the late rate cuts and stated that he would soon announce a new Federal Reserve chairman. However, Powell's term is not set to end until May 2026. The current high-profile claim of a new chairman candidate, aside from the need for actual operations, is also a deliberate action by Trump, aimed at weakening the policy influence of the current Federal Reserve chairman. If the pace of rate cuts accelerates in the second half of the year, I believe the bull market will also keep pace. According to the previous cycle rhythm, if all goes well, reaching the peak around October would be ideal. If it is slower, I would suggest selling off most positions before December. Currently, time is still on the side of those staying out, with 3-5 months left.
Last night during trading, there was a drop, including Bitcoin falling below 113,000 again. Aside from suggesting a potential second bottom, the direct impact was Trump's announcement of new tariffs. He may announce tariffs on semiconductors, chips, and imported medicines next week, including the possibility of potential tax increases on India and the EU. It must be said that Trump's threat of tariffs is still present, which is also an uncertain factor that could impact the market in the short term. However, as I mentioned, Trump is vigorously promoting rate cuts, and the market has this expectation, so confidence should not collapse rapidly. Currently, US stocks have once again entered a high-level consolidation, and if all goes smoothly, a consolidation of 1-2 weeks could lead to new highs.
In terms of the market, Bitcoin has recently dropped from 120,000 to adjust. Aside from the impact of those 80,000 legacies being liquidated, more importantly, there are actually quite a few ancient whales in the crypto circle selling off at this position. Whether from the price or time dimension, selling at this price is reasonable. In fact, from the data perspective, selling pressure has already begun for amounts over 100,000. The core issue now is whether this wave of Wall Street capital will continue purchasing and eventually seize the price discourse power of Bitcoin. From MicroStrategy's buying rhythm, they purchase on average every 1-2 weeks, and there has been no sign of stopping yet. They are using various methods to finance and grab BTC chips, and it seems this approach is becoming increasingly common. It's no wonder that so many companies are starting to imitate and purchase ETH, BNB, and other tokens.
As for Ethereum, this round has completely kept up with the rhythm, even performing more eye-catchingly, although the driving force for the rise also comes from Wall Street. Deep down, I am optimistic about the technical explosion of Ethereum and actually hope it won't be interfered with by capital too early, but since it has arrived, I will accept it calmly. According to OnchainLens monitoring, in the past two days, four multi-signature wallets have received over 100,000 ETH from FalconX, Galaxy Digital, and BitGo, worth $360 million. The latter is a cryptocurrency trading service provider, so it can be inferred that these 100,000 ETH belong to institutional purchases. Recently, Ethereum's price has been greatly influenced by the overall market, but it is still hard to conceal its strength, and volatility has also increased significantly, which is related to Ethereum just coming out of a more than one-year slump. I believe that with the joint push of capital, after the price steps up to the next level, the market's firm bullish sentiment will be enhanced.
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