In the 'Macro Monday' livestream on August 5, cryptocurrency analyst Josh Olszewicz provided an assessment of the late summer market situation, arguing that although Bitcoin prices have stalled, the overall cycle remains intact. "We are in a seasonal weakening phase in August and September, a phase that we usually see in most years," he explained, pointing to seasonal charts showing that Bitcoin often underperforms during this period. "It is highly likely that August and September will be a barren period," he added.

Has Bitcoin's Bull Run Ended?

On the 978th day of the current cycle, Olszewicz notes that the question many investors are asking is very simple but vital: has the cycle ended? Will it end this year? Or is there more growth momentum ahead? His answer is somewhat cautiously optimistic. "I belong to the group of 'maybe not ended, could continue'," he said. "But we will have to wait and see what happens in Q4. Ultimately, that will decide everything."

Technically, the analyst sees no reason to declare that a peak has occurred. "Technical indicators remain stable. Prices are stable. We have had a pullback. Everything is fine," he said, emphasizing that Bitcoin has not yet shown the typical parabolic increase often seen at major peaks. Other macro or on-chain indicators also have not shown signs of overheating. "We do not have any other indicators signaling that the time has come."

However, the short-term setup is not very impressive. After breaking out of the cup-and-handle pattern that briefly pushed prices to the $122,000–$123,000 range, the momentum has weakened. Olszewicz doubts the ability to regain this price level soon: "In the next two weeks, we will know whether we can start to return to the $120,000 mark, a quite high figure for August." He said the main uncertainty factor is the ETF capital flow. "Will we see ETF capital flows for some reason? So will fund managers continue to buy? It’s just the current retail buyers."

He believes ETF buyers may return due to a combination of short positions, opportunistic buying when prices fall, and monthly rebalancing momentum. However, overall he maintains a neutral stance. "It’s just the general weakening of any optimism we may have had," he said. "Things would be different if this were October and we witnessed this. That would not be normal."

Another reason for caution is the collapse of the futures contract basis across major assets. "The premium has fallen below 7% for BTC. Below 8% for ETH. And I think SOL is a bit less liquid, but even SOL has dropped significantly - 15% from 35%,” he noted. The decline in futures contract premiums, often a sign of waning speculative demand, reflects broader risk-averse sentiment. "There is not much optimism, nor much craziness," Olszewicz remarked.

On-chain risk metrics confirm this trend. "There is a decline in risk appetite," he said, referring to metrics such as unrealized profits versus MVRV. He added that if Bitcoin enters a parabolic bull run, "you will see this metric soar... But what will happen?"

Q4 or Bankruptcy

He presented a few possibilities: rate cuts, weakening Fed independence, or perhaps just seasonal strength and macroeconomic instability in Q4. But right now, he advises traders to "be cautious with 50x leverage," especially those who have made significant profits in this cycle. "Do I need to take risks back? Do I need to risk like before?" he asked rhetorically. "Or is it more reasonable to reduce risk here?"

From a macroeconomic perspective, the picture is quite complex. Inflation data from Trueflation remains low - currently at 1.65% - but Olszewicz warns that the new tariffs after August 1 could raise prices in the coming months. "We are increasing inflationary pressure through tariffs, there is no doubt about it," he said, although the impact will take time to show in the data. Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index is going in the wrong direction, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model is forecasting a growth rate of 2.1% in Q3 - not a recession, but not strong either.

Labor market data continues to cloud the outlook. "If we take into account that the labor force participation rate is not declining, the actual unemployment rate could reach 4.9%,” Olszewicz warns. "And we are continuing to see a decline in job numbers in the manufacturing sector," especially in "types of jobs in the Central Rust Belt."

Liquidity dynamics are also changing. He pointed to the gradual withdrawal of the Fed's reverse repo mechanism - once a $2 trillion reserve that was overlooked - which has supported risk assets throughout 2023 and 2024. "As this nears completion, liquidity disruptions may occur, and the Fed will intervene in liquidity," he said. Importantly, this has kept the overall liquidity of the United States stable, offsetting quantitative tightening. "Despite QT, the gradual withdrawal of reverse repos has offset QT, and U.S. liquidity has essentially stabilized since 2022."

Olszewicz stated that the game changer is not liquidity, but the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. "In my opinion, that really makes a big difference," he explained. "We have received ETF approvals here, ETFs are starting to trade here, and the rest is history in terms of cash flow."

In summary, Olszewicz emphasizes that while overall risk appetite has decreased and price volatility remains gloomy, there is still no evidence to suggest that the Bitcoin cycle has peaked. "This cycle may not be over," he said. "It is just sleeping - and Q4 will ultimately decide whether it wakes up or not."