Entered the market during the winter of 2019, my six-year journey in the crypto world
First phase (2019-2020): Entering at the tail of a bear market, ignorant and fearless in trying things out
At the end of 2019, I entered the market with $50,000, just as Bitcoin rebounded from $3,400 at the beginning of the year to nearly $10,000, amidst others shouting 'bull market restart', yet I was unaware this was merely the struggle at the end of a bear market.
• Altcoin trap: Trusting group recommendations to heavily invest in coins like GXs and NEO, only to encounter the 'Black Thursday' on March 12, 2020, when Bitcoin plummeted 40% in a day to $3,800, instantly shrinking assets by 70%, with altcoins nearly hitting zero;
• Initial experience with leverage: To recover losses, played contracts on OKEx with 50x leverage betting on a rebound, and once got liquidated with a spike losing $30,000, deeply grasping the truth that 'exchanges love gamblers';
• Period of shaken faith: Watching mining friends forced to shut down due to the price dropping below electricity costs, and even some selling mining machines at low prices to exit, I once doubted whether blockchain was just a bubble.
Second phase (2020-2021): Reflecting on pain, reconstructing investment logic
After experiencing a bloodbath, began systematic learning. Three points of understanding completely changed the strategy:
1. The essence of bull and bear cycles: Realizing that the so-called 'warming' in 2019 was just a washout before institutional entry (such as Square and PayPal entering Bitcoin), with the real bull market driven by institutional liquidity;
2. The unexpected rise of platform coins: Swap remaining funds for BNB, HT, and other platform coins. In 2020, HT surged 160% due to 'buyback and destruction + ecological application', outperforming Bitcoin in single coin returns;
3. Rules of position management: no longer go all in, using a '33% allocation' strategy:
• 50% allocation in BTC/ETH (core anti-fall)
• 30% leading platform coins (BNB/HT)
• 20% flexible funds (only invest in projects audited by white papers).
Third phase (2021-2023): Navigating through bull and bear markets, respecting the market
• DeFi frenzy and lessons: In 2021, following liquidity mining trends, DODO coin dropped from $4 to $0.1, with a single project losing $50,000, realizing the truth that 'high APY = high risk';
• Practical response to the 519 crash: Set a stop-loss point at the 5-day moving average in advance, decisively clear out altcoins when ETH falls below $2,800, retaining 70% of the principal;
• Survival rules for a bear market: After the LUNA crash in 2022, completely gave up on 'shitcoins', shifted to regular investments in Bitcoin (10% of monthly salary) + stablecoin investment (annualized 8%-12%).
Fourth phase (2024 to present): Focus on the core, patiently await the new cycle
Current strategy is extremely simplified:
• Only play with known coins: 80% position in BTC + ETH, 20% reserved for grid trading volatility;
• Awaiting signals: Key indicator for the next bull market startup — daily inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs breaking $500 million (currently only $120 million).
Survival guide for those who entered the market in the same period of 2019 (a painful summary)
1. 'Pick the softest persimmons to squeeze': Coins with complex logic and vague fundamentals, don’t touch them if you don’t understand. Only earn money from clear insights.
2. 'Don’t hang yourself on one tree': Even if you are optimistic, the position in any single coin must not exceed 20% of total positions. Black swans treat all 'absolutes'.
3. 'A brave cut': If you find the trend deteriorating after buying (like breaking key support or bearish divergence on moving averages), immediately stop loss. Luck is the neighbor of bankruptcy.
4. 'Go with the trend': Once the coins in your position enter a downtrend, regardless of profit or loss, exit and observe. Do not fight against the trend.
5. 'From a thousand rivers, only take one scoop': Focus your energy on a few core coins that are in an uptrend (usually no more than five). Stay away from weak volatility or downtrends during 'garbage time' and don’t become a supporting actor for the main players.
6. 'Abandon the fantasy of getting rich quickly': Avoid frequent short-term trading! Transaction friction costs (fees, slippage) accumulate over time into a big pit. Ordinary people are not quantitative institutions and do not have the advantage of high-frequency winning. It’s about quality over quantity in coins.
7. 'Cheap is not a reason to buy': A coin dropped by 90%? It can drop another 90%. Below the floor is hell; avoid blindly catching falling knives.
8. 'Expensive is not a reason to sell': A coin has increased tenfold? If the trend hasn’t changed, it may increase another tenfold. In a bull market, don’t talk about peaks; learn to let profits run.
The following are 14 techniques gained from my own experiences verified through bull and bear markets:
1. Invest only with spare money, never borrow! Money that affects your life cannot be lost; the mindset will collapse.
2. Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated. Deeply understand your risk tolerance, character weaknesses, and knowledge boundaries to play to your strengths and avoid weaknesses in the market.
3. The market is always right, don’t bet against it. Eliminate emotions and respect the objective signals given by the market.
4. Think independently, refuse FOMO (fear of missing out). Crowded places are often harvesting grounds, especially when novices are rushing in; stay vigilant.
5. Control your position to withstand volatility. Ensure at least enough funds to bear a single drop of 30-50% without being liquidated or collapsing psychologically. Light positions allow for longer survival.
6. Plan your trades, trade your plan. Emotional operations outside of the plan are the beginning of the abyss.
7. Be decisive with stop-losses, and have a method for taking profits. Cut losses as quickly as lightning, and have a strategy (like trailing stops) for letting profits run.
8. Trading is a long-distance race; take timely breaks. When in poor condition, continuously losing, or when the market is chaotic, exit and regroup; clearing your mind is a hundred times better than trading blindly.
9. The 'endurance' mantra: The ultimate mindset for investment. Endure waiting for opportunities, endure fluctuations in positions, and endure being sidelined in cash. Time is the best friend of value.
10. Strictly set and execute stop-loss points. Clearly define the maximum loss you are willing to bear before entering, execute immediately upon reaching it, leaving no room for 'let’s see'.
11. Don’t lose big for small gains. Achieve planned profit targets, and if you fall short by a few points, don’t rush to cash out? You could lose big for a small gain. However, also don’t miss safe exit points just to round up.
12. Be brave to admit mistakes and operate in reverse. Quickly reverse to short after a breakout when long, and quickly reverse to long after a breakout when short. Flexibility is key to survival.
13. Break through the market situation and enter in the direction of the trend. Once a long-term range-bound movement (especially accompanied by decreasing volume) breaks out effectively (must be on increased volume!), it is a highly probable follow-up opportunity.
14. Beware of sharp declines after surges (spikes), and guard against sharp rebounds after falls (squeezes). For extreme price movements, it’s better to miss out than to make mistakes. Let the bullets fly for a while and act only after seeing clearly.
The most profound insight from six years in the crypto world: entering during the winter of 2019 turned out to be the greatest luck — it taught me risk control in a bear market and restraint in a bull market. Those who truly traverse cycles understand that 'staying alive' is more important than 'getting rich quickly'. I still research on-chain data daily, but my positions never exceed 30% of spare money. If you resonate or have questions, feel free to communicate; I’m willing to be your lighthouse to avoid pitfalls.#BTC $BTC