0.326 USD becomes the 'value anchor', with a sell wall pressuring above at 0.334 USD, and a vacuum zone waiting below at 0.30 USD, where bulls and bears play out the 'last minute' at the 78% Bollinger upper band.
[Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution]
1. Value anchoring zone: POC 0.3265, with a total transaction of 2.89 billion coins over the past two weeks, accounting for 6% of the total, serving as the bullish bottom line.
2. High transaction volume zone: HVN 0.324–0.328 forms a 4-layer dense wall, prices retreating to this area are likely to find buying support; HVN 0.312–0.315 serves as a secondary buffer.
3. Low transaction volume gap: LVN 0.300–0.305 and 0.348–0.351 are both 'air pockets', prices entering will accelerate.
4. 70% transaction volume coverage zone: 0.3099–0.3398, current price 0.3338 is close to the upper band, short-term overbought, high probability of retracing to the middle band at 0.324.
[Momentum Validation]
• POC zone Up/Down Volume 45 : 55, selling pressure slightly dominates;
• 0.324 HVN Up Volume 61%, if it retraces here and increases volume, it is considered a signal for bulls to regroup;
• 0.300 LVN Up Volume 85%, once it breaks, bears will increase their volume and chase.
[Auxiliary Indicators]
• MA200 0.3287, price is currently deviated by 1.5%, deviation > 2% is prone to mean reversion;
• 1h Bollinger bands are narrowing, with a bandwidth of only 1.2%, a trend change is imminent;
• Contract OI 24h +1.25%, Long/Short ratio 1.61, moderate long position increase with leverage, if the price falls below 0.326, it will trigger a chain liquidation.
[Order Book Anomaly]
The sell orders on the order book exceed 300,000 USDT, with three layers of icebergs at the top 0.45/0.395/0.372 totaling 3.38 million USDT, serving as a medium-term ceiling; below at 0.30, there are only 210,000 USDT, indicating a clear liquidity trap.
[Market Cycle]
The medium-term upward channel is intact, and the short-term is at the 'end of high-level consolidation'. If 0.326 is lost, it will transition to a 4-hour level pullback; if maintained, it will continue a slow bullish trend on the monthly chart.
[Trading Strategy]
• Aggressive: Short with light position at current price 0.3338, stop loss at 0.3347 (Bollinger upper band + 0.5 ATR), target 0.326, risk-reward ratio 2.3.
• Moderate: Wait for a pullback to 0.324–0.325 HVN, go long after a 15m level volume breakout engulfing candle, stop loss at 0.322 (outside HVN below), target 0.334, risk-reward ratio 2.8.
• Conservative: If it falls below 0.326, short on the retracement to 0.328, stop loss at 0.3305, target 0.315, risk-reward ratio 3.1.
[Risk Warning]
Strategy invalidation: If the price breaks above 0.3347 or falls below 0.322 and holds for 30 minutes, stop loss and exit; additional risk control is needed for macro unexpected negative news.
[LP Market Making Advice]
It is recommended to place bilateral LP orders in the range of 0.322–0.328, earning a 0.6% fee, utilizing HVN's high transaction density to reduce impermanent loss; if the price breaks out of the range, immediately cancel the order and follow the trend.
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