Firstly, the choice of the Federal Reserve chairman is a mystery. Trump has revealed that his favored candidate, Bessenet, has no intention of succeeding Powell, and is currently looking at Warsh (Kevin Warsh) and Hassett (Kevin Hassett). Always dissatisfied with Powell for being 'disobedient', he hopes to replace him with a 'obedient' chairman who can implement interest rate cuts more quickly. This unresolved situation itself is the biggest uncertainty—while the crypto space is wary of the unknown, there is considerable anticipation for 'massive monetary easing'. If the new chairman indeed sends strong dovish signals as Trump wishes, crypto assets, as an 'alternative choice against monetary easing', may see a significant increase in attractiveness.
Secondly, the tariff stick is being wielded again. Key areas such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have been included in the scope of increased taxes, with specific threats to impose a 35% tariff on India. As trade frictions escalate, global markets are vulnerable to shocks, and the volatility of traditional assets may intensify. At this time, Bitcoin and other globally circulated 'digital gold' assets, which are not affected by a single country's tariffs, may be seen by more funds as potential 'safe havens'. Although their own volatility is not small, they may be viewed as more 'secure' than stocks that are directly impacted by the tariff war in the eyes of some investors.
Finally, Trump's campaign attitude remains enigmatic. He claims to 'want to run for president again, but may not', and this tactic of 'wanting to capture but letting go' makes him a 'super catalyst' for market fluctuations. Whether it's pro-business tax cuts, easing monetary policy, or engaging in trade wars, every policy inclination he has profoundly impacts economic expectations. As long as he continues to stir the pot, interest in 'non-traditional' and 'decentralized' assets is unlikely to cool, and cryptocurrencies, as representatives of this field, will naturally remain hot.
In short, if the Federal Reserve's leadership points towards dovishness, it will be favorable for crypto assets (anti-inflation narrative); the rekindling of the tariff war will elevate risk aversion, making crypto one of the choices (the 'digital safe haven' narrative); Trump's campaign smoke bombs will continue to create uncertainty, keeping the crypto topic hot amid fluctuations.
In the coming weeks, the dynamics of the Federal Reserve appointments and the progress of trade frictions are worth close attention, as they may quietly influence the trend of crypto assets. Let's stay sharp and watch the changes!
