Bitcoin has managed to climb back above $114,000 after dipping to $112,000 over the weekend. But while institutional investors continue to accumulate BTC, historical data and technical patterns are pointing to a potential pullback — possibly to the $105,000 zone — before any real rebound takes place.
Let’s break down the signals behind this cautious August forecast and what levels matter most right now.
1. August Is Historically a Weak Month for Bitcoin
Looking at data since 2017, Bitcoin has posted losses in 5 out of the last 7 Augusts — averaging a drop of 11.4%. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could retest the $105,000 support, which also happens to be the bottom of an ascending triangle on the daily chart.
Breaking below this key support would be a red flag for bulls and could trigger a deeper correction. But holding this level could provide the foundation for a powerful rebound.
2. $115,000 Remains a Critical Resistance Zone
While BTC is currently hovering around $114,500, it’s still facing strong resistance at $115,000. This level is critical — analysts say a confirmed close above $115,000 could spark a fresh rally towards $118,000, with an extended target at $125,000.
Failing to break through could mean BTC continues trading in a tight range, or worse, revisits lower supports.
3. Bull Flag and Buy Signal Suggest a Reversal Is Near
Despite recent weakness, BTC has reentered the bull flag pattern — a technical setup that usually precedes a breakout. A bullish sign also came from the TD Sequential indicator, which flashed a ‘9’ buy signal on the 12-hour chart.
This signal often appears after selling pressure cools down, increasing the odds of a short-term bounce — especially since it occurred right above the key $112,000 support.
4. Institutions Are Still Buying During the Dip
Amid the uncertainty, Metaplanet, a major Japanese investment firm, just bought 463 more BTC on August 4 for $53.7 million — bringing its total holdings to 17,595 BTC. That places it among the top 7 largest public holders globally, now managing over $2 billion in Bitcoin assets.
This move reflects continued long-term confidence from large institutions — even as price volatility increases.
5. 112K Breakout Retest Was Successful
A key technical retest has also been confirmed. Analysts at IncomeSharks noted that BTC recently fell back to the $112,000 breakout area — and held firm. This move successfully tested support while forming a new narrow rising channel starting from the April lows.
As long as BTC holds above this rising trendline (currently near $114,700), the short-term bias remains bullish.
Conclusion: 105K Before Lift-Off?
August might bring more downside, potentially dragging BTC to $105,000 if the historical trend plays out. But if the $112,000–$114,000 support zone holds strong, and BTC breaks cleanly above $115,000, a rebound toward $125,000 is still on the table.
All eyes are now on the next few sessions — they could set the tone for the rest of Q3. Smart investors are watching key levels closely, especially $112K (support) and $115K (resistance), for clues on where Bitcoin is headed next.