Key Takeaways
Year-end Bitcoin options expiry on Dec. 26 is worth $8.8B, with more than $1B tied to $200K calls.
Market pricing implies <3% chance BTC hits $200K in 2025; $140K calls price in 21% odds.
Popular strategies like Call Diagonal Spreads and Inverse Call Butterflies profit even if BTC stalls far below $200K.
Bears still active: nearly $900M in puts target $50K–$80K range.
Polymarket odds give BTC $200K a higher 13% probability.
Bitcoin (BTC) traders are eyeing the Dec. 26, 2025 year-end options expiry, where open interest has swelled to $8.8 billion — including more than $1 billion in call options that would profit if BTC tops $200,000. But despite the headline-grabbing strike prices, market data suggests the odds of such a move are slim.
Calls Dominate, But $200K Is a Long Shot
According to Laevitas.ch, call (buy) options account for $6.45B in open interest, dwarfing the $2.36B in puts (sell options). Still, most traders are not expecting a 72% rally from current levels around $117,500.
Calls with strikes of $170K+ will expire worthless unless BTC gains at least 46%.
If BTC ends near $116,500 at expiry, just $878M in call open interest will retain value.
The $200K December call is priced at BTC 0.007 (~$814), implying <3% probability using the Black-Scholes model. By contrast, the $140K call carries a 21% probability.
Why Bullish Calls Don’t Always Mean Moon Bets
Professional traders often use far-out-of-the-money calls as part of multi-leg strategies that don’t require a $200K finish.
Call Diagonal Spread
Buy a $200K Dec call and sell a $200K Oct call.
Profits if BTC exceeds $146K by Oct. 31, as the long-dated call gains while the short-term call expires worthless.
Max gain: BTC 0.0665 ($7,750); Max loss: BTC 0.005 ($585).
Inverse Call Butterfly
Buy $140K call, sell two $160K calls, buy $200K call — all for Dec expiry.
Optimal profit if BTC ends near $160K on Dec. 26.
Max gain: BTC 0.112 ($13,050); Max loss capped at BTC 0.109 ($12,700).
Bearish Bets Still on the Board
Roughly $900M in December put options are targeting $50K–$80K, signaling some traders see potential for deeper downside.
Alternative Market Views
While options pricing suggests a 3% chance of BTC hitting $200K, Polymarket participants are more optimistic, assigning it a 13% probability by year-end.
Bottom line: The billion-dollar $200K calls in Bitcoin’s options market make for bold headlines, but they’re often part of hedged strategies rather than outright moonshot wagers. The real signal is that professional traders are positioning for a wide range of outcomes — from $50K downside hedges to mid-$160K sweet spots — rather than betting the farm on a parabolic finish to 2025, according to Cointelegraph.
