1. News Analysis:
Federal Reserve's Daly releases signals for interest rate cuts, bringing liquidity benefits to the crypto market.
According to the news in Figure 1, San Francisco Fed President Daly clearly stated that 'the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching' and believes that the number of cuts this year is 'more likely to be greater than two.' This statement releases an important signal of a shift in monetary policy:
Core points distilled:
Weak job market + Inflation not rising persistently → Conditions for interest rate cuts are gradually maturing;
Conclusion: Daly's dovish statement is the core news catalyst for today's surge in ETH prices, as the market anticipates 'liquidity easing expectations.'
2. Technical Analysis: ETH/USDT one-hour chart shows a strong breakout pattern.
Combining the one-hour K-line chart of ETH/USDT in Figure 2, the current price trend shows the following key features:
Key price ranges and breakouts:
The price scale on the right side of the chart shows that ETH's current price is around 3674.4 USDT, with clear bullish candles seen on the one-hour chart;
The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with prices running close to the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum in the short term, and the market is in an accelerating phase within an upward channel;
The volume histogram is also expanding, validating the logic of capital driving the price increase—funds are actively entering, and buying power is dominant.
Technical indicator resonance:
MACD Indicator: If the DIF line and DEA line form a golden cross above the zero axis and the histogram turns positive, it usually indicates enhanced short-term upward momentum; combined with the current price trend, MACD is likely in the bullish signal range;
Bollinger Bands: After the price breaks through the middle band and continues to run along the upper band, this is a typical 'strong market' signal. If there are no long upper shadows or large bearish candles in the short term, the probability of trend continuation is high.
Key support and resistance levels:
Support level: 3600-3650 USDT range;
Resistance level: 3800-4000 USDT range.
Conclusion: The technical aspects present a bullish pattern of 'volume breakout + indicator resonance,' resonating with positive news, driving ETH upwards in the short term.
3. Zhuque's View: Dual driving forces of liquidity expectations + technical breakthroughs, ETH may maintain strength in the short term.
Based on a comprehensive analysis of news and technical aspects, I believe today's surge in ETH is the result of the 'rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts' and the 'technical buying resonance.' The specific logic is as follows:
Operation suggestions:
Short-term investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks to support levels, with stop-loss set below support and targets aimed at 3800-4000; medium-term investors need to closely monitor subsequent statements from the Federal Reserve. If expectations for interest rate cuts continue to strengthen, ETH is likely to initiate a larger upward trend.
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