Tonight I reviewed the market trends and felt it was necessary to discuss the current rhythm changes of BTC and ETH with everyone.
BTC: Has the rebound ended? The head and shoulders bottom is about to break.
#BTC This rebound is actually following the 'head and shoulders bottom' structure we mentioned earlier. Currently, it has not been completely broken, but the 1-hour and 4-hour charts have started to show clear weakness. Especially the MACD divergence is becoming increasingly obvious—prices are reaching new highs, while momentum is declining, a standard signal of a phase peak.
Currently testing support repeatedly around 114K. If this level cannot hold, it may directly seek the previous low for a bottom. Looking at the daily chart, it has long fallen below the key trend line. Unless there is a rapid recovery, this pullback is far from over.
At the weekly level, the MACD continues to diverge, and the trend is very similar to the 'violent pullback' after the last bull market peak, when it directly dropped several tens of thousands of dollars.
ETH: There is no solution in the oscillation market, the upper edge of the triangle has been unable to break through for a long time.
#ETH Currently stuck at the upper edge of the weekly convergence triangle, a typical oscillation structure. The rebound has been unable to surpass the previous high, and even at the hourly level, it has already formed lower highs. The bearish structure is beginning to establish. If the 3321 level cannot hold, there is a risk of another test downwards.
Summary: It is not recommended to chase the highs in this rebound; structurally, it is still a pullback market. A true reversal depends on whether the key support can hold or if there are signals of a volume breakout in the future.
Regarding altcoins: Recently, the secondary market is digesting the rise of ETH from 2100 to 3900, showing clear oscillation, but the rhythm on-chain is completely different.
For example, the old projects in the usd1 ecosystem #EGL1 have stabilized and started to gain strength again after breaking through the triangle's end last time; there’s also #GOR which I missed when it launched, and now the chips are concentrating again. I have added some, with a short-term target of 50%-100%; the #CAT that I laid out at a low position has already multiplied several times. The opportunities on-chain are indeed more intense.
Summary: The current market is still within a pullback structure, and it is not advisable to chase highs. Opportunities depend on waiting and switching thoughts. When the secondary market lacks momentum, on-chain, primary market, and hot rotation are the correct directions.
I am increasingly certain about the rhythm of this recent wave: it is not about 'holding coins to survive the winter,' but about flexibly shifting positions and following the smart money.
