Looking at polymarket data, a 25 bps rate cut in September is highly likely. So what specific effects will it have on the market before and after the rate cut?

In fact, we can't say for sure that a rate cut will always lead to an increase; we also need to consider the economic fundamentals, which is essentially the game between market concerns about recession and the benefits of liquidity easing.

In this case, although the non-farm data doesn't look good, the overall economic fundamentals are still quite resilient. The biggest risk now is that both U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies have already reached high levels.

In the short term, look at the 12-hour chart of BTC. If it successfully builds a bottom below and breaks through the pressure line shown in the chart, it will continue to rise near previous highs. If it fails to build a bottom, it won't be able to break through the pressure line and will continue to adjust downward until a bottom is successfully formed.

One possibility is a second retest of the CME gap, inducing short positions to get retail investors to cut losses, allowing the whales to acquire assets, and then rising. So in the near term, we should first induce a rise before crashing down for a second retest.