The wave of "ten thousand coins flying together" in 2021 and the rise of altcoins can ultimately be attributed to two main reasons:

First, at that time, many projects with real application value were still small in scale, but had enormous potential.

For instance, Axie Infinity (AXS) skyrocketed from a few cents to 165 dollars, reaching the pinnacle of GameFi; Solana (SOL) surged from under 1 dollar to over 250 dollars, becoming the strongest contender against Ethereum; Polygon (MATIC) was still a niche Layer 2 solution, rising from a few cents to nearly 3 dollars; let alone assets like SHIB, GALA, and SAFEMOON, which are driven by market sentiment, often seeing hundredfold or thousandfold increases, with prices changing drastically in a day.

Second, during that time, the market manipulators had not yet fully developed the habit of exploiting retail investors; most project teams were genuinely focused on building, coding, and growing communities, rather than merely on fundraising or creating PowerPoint presentations. Market sentiment was genuinely enthusiastic, and projects were truly being implemented.

Additionally, macro factors such as "timing, location, and human connection" played a role; with abundant capital, low interest rates, exuberant sentiment, and an upward cycle, the entire blockchain and altcoin sectors were propelled to soar together.

However—history does not simply repeat itself; it only rhymes.

This round is distinctly different. The initial phase saw institutions exercising extreme restraint: heavily investing in BTC while also allocating ETH.

Large-cap altcoins like SOL, APT, and AVAX have been in a prolonged decline, as if it was not their turn yet. Only when ETH stabilized and rebounded around 1400 dollars did quality altcoins begin to stabilize and show signs of recovery.

The essence of investing is pricing the future. My personal judgment is:

BTC and ETH will continue to rise steadily, and quality leading altcoins will follow suit, but the market will be more restrained and structurally stronger.

Stories of fivefold, tenfold, or hundredfold returns are unlikely to happen again; returns of 2 to 3 times might be a rational expectation for quality altcoins.

As for "ten thousand coins flying together"? That is a myth from a specific cycle and will not become the norm.

The market has matured and has also learned some bad habits. Relying solely on narratives and FOMO cannot sustain a collective rise; non-structural market conditions will become the new normal.

Of course, all of this is predicated on significant monetary easing actually taking place. Although the Federal Reserve has not yet truly eased, the market has already begun to position itself in anticipation of "expected easing". This is also why many positions in this market cycle were established early, with a fast-paced rhythm—cyclical speculation is essentially a collective bet on "expectations".