In the second half of this year, the possibility of a major bull market in the crypto space is very high. All my strategies have long been centered around the bull market. To be honest, I personally judge that by the end of this year, Bitcoin has a very high probability of breaking above $150,000.
But this bull market is completely different from the wave you are familiar with in 2021.
Stop fantasizing that the scenario of 'Bitcoin doubling and altcoins increasing tenfold' will repeat. The reality is that the funding structure has changed this round; the core driving force is no longer the enthusiasm of retail investors, but the institutional flow brought by ETFs. These 'outside funds' almost exclusively flow into Bitcoin and will not rotate to some nameless altcoin in your hands.
You might not believe it and say I’m too conservative. So let me be more direct—
In this market cycle, the money I made from Bitcoin far exceeds what I made from altcoins.
Moreover, the holding experience of altcoins is simply torturous; the candlestick chart looks like an electrocardiogram, the trends are unformed, and the price spikes are illogical. The so-called 'high risk for high reward' has now turned into 'high risk for low reward'. Can you still play?
I am not a Bitcoin believer; I became rich from altcoins in 2021.
But this time, I admit it, the logic has really changed.
I have a friend who bottomed out with me in 2022. He looked down on Bitcoin at the time, thinking it was slow, and went all in on a bunch of popular altcoins. Now? His principal is left with 1/20, a complete 95% reduction. This is not an isolated case; this is the collective fate of altcoin players.
So, if you are truly a long-term investor, you should know that in the process of cyclical changes, only Bitcoin is the core asset that truly traverses bull and bear markets.
Don't fantasize about playing memes for ten years; that kind of 'long-termism' is just a chronic suicide.
This is not about shorting altcoins; it’s a reminder not to use the 2021 mindset to bet on the market of 2025.
We are all changing, and the market changed long ago.
