Bitcoin remains range-bound near $115,000, projecting surface-level calm. But realized price data suggests this balance may be fragile. Long-term holders — the “old whales” — have stopped actively realizing gains, while newer whales who entered over the past year are still in profit, but only slightly. This tension between patient old capital and recently exposed new capital may not last much longer.
From 2022 through 2024, old whales steadily realized profits, as seen in their rising realized cap. This quiet distribution coincided with mid-cycle conditions. But since early 2025, their realized cap has flattened, signaling a pause. Their average cost basis, around $39,400, places them deep in profit — likely awaiting higher levels before resuming activity.
Meanwhile, newer whales, including likely institutional entrants, now hold a realized price around $105,300. This has become their psychological breakeven. So long as BTC trades above it, they remain comfortable. But if price breaks below, risk-off behavior may accelerate — from profit-taking to panic selling and leverage unwinds.
Adding to the fragility is low recent activity from both groups. Old whales are idle. New whales are exposed. Neither is pressing the market — yet. But once the range breaks, the reaction could be sharp.
Realized prices are drawing the true battle lines. Above $105K, new capital holds. Below it, the floor weakens. On the other side, a surge toward $130K may tempt old whales back into the game.
Written by Kripto Mevsimi
