Can DOGE Bottom Out? Here are Three Reasons and Three Risks!
Recently, $DOGE dropped to 0.18, and some are saying that the conflict between Musk and Trump is an opportunity, preparing to wait for him to hype it up. This line of thought has some basis; every time Musk stirs things up, DOGE can rise by 15%-30%. Technically, there is support for a rebound, with the 4-hour RSI approaching the 30 oversold zone, and 0.182 is a key support level. If it holds, it could replicate historical rises. On-chain whales are more direct, with monthly purchases exceeding 1 billion coins and a holding of 25.97 billion coins; large funds might find it cheap.
However, there are three risks. First, the August curse: DOGE has an average drop of 10% in August, and this month it has already fallen by 5.31%, possibly dipping to 0.16. Second, the strong resistance zone at 0.25-0.26, which has failed to break through multiple times in 2025; if it can't break through, it may continue to fluctuate. Third, Musk's influence is waning; the heat from his quarrel with Trump has decreased, and with stricter regulations, casual calls might attract SEC trouble.
If your cost is ≥0.25, sell 30% at 0.24 first, and wait for the rest at 0.34; if it drops below 0.1789, quickly stop loss. If your cost is 0.20-0.24, hold until the 0.26 resistance zone, add to your position if it breaks through, and take profits if it doesn't. If your cost is ≤0.19, hold tightly; if it breaks 0.182, then hedge, betting on a historical-level rebound.
DOGE currently relies on Musk for survival, but in the long term, it depends on whether ecological applications can take off. If Bitcoin surges to $120,000, DOGE may rise along with it; if the market turns bearish, 0.14 is the bottom line.
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