#BTC

  1. Key nodes in technical analysis

    • BTC: Currently in a B wave rebound, 116000 USD is an important pressure level that must be stabilized to confirm the reversal; if it cannot break through, it may enter a C wave pullback (target not specified, but suggests that 112000 is not the bottom).

    • ETH: Needs to wait for confirmation of a second bottom test, 3650 USD is a pressure level, and short-term buying around 3400 may present short-term opportunities (consistent with expectations from 10 days ago).

    • SOL: Pressure around 168 USD, need to observe if it can break through.

  2. Macroeconomic risk factors

    • Federal Reserve policy: September interest rate cut expectations have been partially priced in, but the market may turn to trade 'recession' risks (50% probability of pullback).

    • Capital flows: The rise in US stocks may overextend expectations; if funds withdraw from risk assets, the crypto market may come under pressure.

  3. Operational strategy

    • Short-term: Mostly wait and see, do not blindly catch the bottom; near pressure levels, short positions can be attempted (but emphasize 'do less shorting in a bull market').

    • Long-term: Maintain faith; after key support levels (e.g., BTC 40000, ETH 3400) show stabilization signals, positions can still be built.

Key controversies and thoughts

  • ABC wave vs continuation of the bull market

    • If BTC does not break the previous low (e.g., 112000), it may oscillate at high levels instead of a deep C wave pullback, and caution is needed to avoid missing the opportunity.

    • During historical cycles, the pullback amplitude and time after BTC halving are often irregular, and it is necessary to verify demand support by combining on-chain data (such as institutional holdings and exchange outflows).

  • Macroeconomic pricing contradictions

    • Expectations of interest rate cuts coexist with recession fears, but the correlation between the crypto market and US stocks may weaken (e.g., BTC's properties as a hedging tool strengthen).

  • ETH's independence

    • ETH's recent performance is weaker than BTC's, attention should be paid to ecological development (such as ETF progress and Layer 2 adoption rate) to see if it supports a breakout.

Supplementary strategy recommendations

  1. Phased layout

    • If BTC dips to the 112000-100000 range and stabilizes with reduced volume, positions can be built in batches; ETH should not break the previous low (e.g., 3400) on a second bottom test, which will be seen as a signal.

    • After breaking the pressure level (BTC 116000/ETH 3650) and not breaking during the pullback, it is possible to chase long positions on the right side.

  2. Use of hedging tools

    • Use options to protect positions during uncertain windows (e.g., August-September), or hedge by shorting high beta altcoins while going long BTC/ETH.

  3. Focus on alternative indicators

    • Changes in stablecoin market capitalization (such as USDT issuance), miner selling pressure, and derivative funding rates can assist in determining the true direction of the market.

Summary

Your viewpoint reflects the trading philosophy of 'waiting for certainty,' avoiding excessive risk exposure before the trend becomes clear. The current market needs to balance:

  • Technical analysis (key level breakthroughs/breakdowns)

  • Macroeconomic factors (lagging effects of the Federal Reserve's policy shift)

  • Sentiment factors (retail FOMO and institutional entry rhythm).