Original title: (Crypto traders ‘fool themselves’ with price predictions: Peter Brandt)
Author: Ciaran Lyons, Cointelegraph Magazine
Compiled & Translated by: Fairy, ChainCatcher
Editor's note:
Peter Brandt founded Factor Trading Co., Inc. in 1981, focusing on proprietary trading. From the mid-1980s to the early 1990s, he also managed funds for several large institutional clients. He gained fame for accurately predicting trends in commodities, futures, and cryptocurrency markets (such as the Bitcoin bull market of 2017-2018), and is now one of the most followed technical traders in the crypto space.
In the constantly noisy crypto market, Peter Brandt's voice is always an outlier. He is both a longstanding representative of the chartist camp and a highly controversial 'deadpan jokester.' To traders, he is the 'price hunter' who accurately calls market bottoms and tops; in the crypto community, he is a provocateur who enjoys 'fishing' and teasing ETH and XRP bulls.
This article delves into an interview with this market veteran who has been trading commodities since 1975, reflecting on how he entered the crypto world and how he views the true value of chart analysis.
Brandt's perspective may not be popular, but it is quite enlightening: not every prediction in the market needs to be treated as a faith endorsement; sometimes, it is merely an opportunity to place a bet.
The following is the original text, compiled by ChainCatcher.
"I only look for opportunities that can turn $1 into $4."
"A person who looks at a chart and tells you where a certain asset will rise to is just fooling themselves."
Legendary trader Peter Brandt candidly shares his trading philosophy in an interview: charts cannot predict future prices; they can only tell you where the price 'used to be and where it is now.'
In his view, the significance of charts lies not in predicting, but in identifying opportunities where risk and reward are extremely asymmetric. He says: "Probabilistically, markets tend to move along existing trends but will fluctuate within a certain range. I look for points where $1 can potentially yield $4; even with only a 50% success rate, I'm willing to take the shot."
Peter Brandt's half-century journey in the market
Since entering the commodity trading market in 1975, Peter Brandt has been active for nearly half a century. On Twitter, he has over 800,000 followers. Economist and Wall Street Journal columnist Barry Ritholtz has even named him one of the '30 Most Influential People in Finance.'
Surprisingly, Brandt does not have a formal background in finance. He graduated from the University of Minnesota with a degree in journalism in 1970 and initially worked in advertising, providing services for clients like McDonald's, even witnessing the birth of the 'Ronald McDonald' brand image.
It was not until a neighbor involved in soybean trading introduced him to the market that Brandt began to pay attention to futures. A few years later, he decided to leave a stable career in advertising and fully immerse himself in corn futures trading. Since the 1970s, he has been active in the agricultural market, gaining substantial trading profits through the volatility brought by weather changes and policy fluctuations.
Since then, he has managed large institutional client accounts and founded his proprietary trading company, Factor Trading Co., which is still in operation today. In 2011, he published 'Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader,' which topped the Amazon trading book charts for 27 consecutive weeks.
A phone call brought him into the crypto world
In May 2016, five years after his bestseller 'Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader' reached the top of Amazon, Peter Brandt received a private message from Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision: "Peter, I appreciate your perspective, what do you think of this chart?" The chart showed Bitcoin, which was then priced at less than $450.
Brandt was immediately captivated, exclaiming after seeing the chart: "Wow, this thing is amazing." He then promptly called Pal to ask how to buy Bitcoin.
Months later, when Bitcoin soared to $1,000, Brandt sold at the right time, doubling his investment. Since then, Brandt has frequently judged the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin and other crypto assets, occasionally receiving praise and at times facing skepticism.
In December 2017, he almost 'predicted to the day' the Bitcoin peak and foresaw an 80% correction, which fully materialized within the next 12 months.
However, he candidly admits that some shocking predictions were actually made in jest. For example, in June 2024, he jokingly suggested that Bitcoin might plummet by 75%, but a month later, BTC hit a new high of $123,100. He stated, "Looking back, my sarcastic tone was not obvious enough; I should learn to use emojis, like adding four winks after the tweet."
He now believes that similar drastic declines are unlikely to reoccur. "Bitcoin has moved towards institutionalization and widespread acceptance; that era of massive corrections may be over."
But after experiencing 50 years of market ups and downs, Brandt, who entered the industry decades before the 2008 financial crisis, also admits: "In the market, anything is possible."
The unflinching emotionless trading master who enjoys 'stirring the pot'
Peter Brandt is quite controversial in the ETH and XRP communities, often unwelcome due to his sharp and even prickly tweets. However, he insists that he is an 'emotionless trader' rather than a fan of any particular coin. He believes that whether it's BTC or Solana, these are merely trading tools, not objects of worship.
As a technical analyst, Brandt does not shy away from the negative signals conveyed by charts, which often leads to criticism for his bearish comments. Despite being blunt, he still holds ETH and XRP in his portfolio, with Bitcoin positions accounting for about 40% of his total investment.
Brandt also admits that he enjoys 'stirring the pot' in the crypto community, sometimes intentionally making provocative statements to elicit reactions, openly stating that this is a form of 'fishing.' He believes the crypto community is prone to emotional reactions, with many misunderstanding criticism of a coin as a personal attack and habitually labeling others.
For those who cling to their beliefs and endure significant drawdowns, Brandt takes a critical stance, suggesting that such blind adherence could ultimately lead to bankruptcy.
Brandt: A Rational View on the $1 Million Bitcoin Expectation
Peter Brandt believes that the bull market for Bitcoin has already begun, rather than still being in its early stages. He points out that when the market is at its peak, investors are generally optimistic, while at the bottom, sentiment is often extremely pessimistic. Emotion is driven by price and, in turn, drives price movement.
However, Brandt is not particularly focused on 'halving cycles,' but rather emphasizes 'bull market cycles,' which refer to the complete time period from the bottom of the previous bear market to the top of the next bull market. According to his judgment, the current bull market began in November 2022 and has lasted nearly three years, which is a sufficiently long cycle.
He also revealed the 'exponential decay' pattern of Bitcoin bull market returns:
The first round of the bull market increased by about 3200 times;
The second round increased by about 630 times;
The third round decreased to 122 times;
The fourth round only reached 21 times.
Brandt points out that although Bitcoin's rise appears astonishing, its actual returns have significantly diminished. He believes that claims of Bitcoin reaching $1 million lack accountability.
Brandt emphasizes that this does not mean Bitcoin will never reach that price; it is just extremely difficult to achieve. Even with high government debt and continuous money printing, it is not enough to support claims that Bitcoin should rise to $1 million.
