Source: Huali Huawai
Last week, due to disappointing non-farm data from the US (not only was the July job growth below expectations, but data for May and June was significantly revised down), the US announced a new round of import tariffs (which will officially take effect on August 7, with rates for some countries as high as 50%), combined with geopolitical shocks (last week Trump made remarks threatening Russia's nuclear submarines during an interview), the crypto market (including the stock market) faced another phase of volatility, with BTC dropping from 120,000 USD to around 112,000 USD, and ETH falling from 3,900 USD to around 3,300 USD.
In terms of spot ETF inflows and outflows, after seven weeks of net inflow, BTC ETF experienced net outflows last week, amounting to 643 million USD. As shown in the figure below.
Despite macro factors causing new market volatility, some ETF funds (buyers) have become cautious again, but the continuous buying behavior of major institutions/whales seems to indicate that their strategic reserve interest in BTC and ETH has not changed significantly, which has somewhat alleviated the pressure of market fluctuations.
Starting this week (August 4th), the market has shown some rebound performance. As of the writing of this article, BTC is holding around 114,000 USD, and ETH is around 3,500 USD, as shown in the figure below.
The current market structure has undergone significant changes. The once wild, free-spirited, community-driven crypto market has now transformed into a digital game controlled by governments, institutional investors (including whales), and industry insiders.
1. The market never lacks opportunities
In the previous article (July 30th), we discussed the upcoming market opportunities from an institutional perspective. Whether the market will have better rebound performance may depend on several factors, including:
- Some upcoming economic data from the US (such as non-farm payroll, inflation, etc.)
- Expectations for when the Federal Reserve's policy will shift
- Can trade tariffs and geopolitical issues ease further?
- The inflow and outflow of market funds (e.g., ETF fund movements, institutional accumulation reserves, etc.)
Market prices are always changing, yet many times, people's emotions feel repetitive. Whenever prices rise rapidly, most people believe a bull market has returned; whenever prices plummet, most believe everything is over.
Different perspectives will lead to different opinions or understandings, and different opinions or understandings will bring about different results or outcomes. Compared to the emotional changes of people (retail investors within a certain range), I prefer to focus on the flow of capital (funding).
A simple example is that many people still view the cryptocurrency industry pessimistically, believing it is all hype and hot air, but a significant amount of capital continues to flow into this field. For instance, from a financing perspective, public data shows that in the past month (July), there were approximately 131 rounds of financing in the cryptocurrency sector, with a total financing scale reaching 3.66 billion USD, as shown in the figure below.
Since the beginning of this year (YTD), the risk investment in the cryptocurrency sector has reached 21.1 billion USD, exceeding the total scale of 13.8 billion USD for the entire year of 2024.
It is clear that while there are still some issues in this field, it is maturing. If you are fortunate enough to have entered this field but continue to maintain a negative outlook, you may continue to miss new opportunities within it.
When it comes to opportunities, it seems to relate to each person's investment preferences; opportunities are subjective.
Recently, due to some physical discomfort, I've reduced my screen time and prolonged sitting. Most of my time is spent lying down and listening to the 'Tomb Raiding Notes' on Himalaya. I found that it is somewhat similar to the tomb raiding schools discussed in the show; the goal of tomb raiders is to dig up ghostly treasures to get rich, but the methods and practices differ. The so-called styles like 'Touching Gold', 'Fang Qiu', 'Moving Mountains', 'Unloading Ridges' are not based on any specific lineage but are just technical styles that differ in techniques and rules.
For instance, those skilled in the 'Fang Qiu' technique like to wear a copper seal. If a farmer also wishes to get rich by digging ghostly treasures and thinks the Fang Qiu copper seal looks cool, he could wear one while following Fang Qiu's rules in tomb raiding; this farmer can be seen as part of the Fang Qiu school. If one day this farmer throws away the copper seal and instead uses some talismans, lighting them around the tomb before acting, this farmer could claim to belong to the 'Moving Mountain' school.
There are various ways and practices to make money in the crypto market. For example, hoarders only stick to their favorite coins (like BTC, ETH), while technical traders prefer to look for swing opportunities using indicators like RSI and MACD, and some blindly follow certain KOLs to speculate on meme coins and contracts... and so forth.
As the crypto market develops, it is no longer an independent niche market or an isolated rebellious asset class. The most direct feeling is that macroeconomics has become more important than ever, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and cuts, US economic data (non-farm payroll, inflation, etc.), changes in the global situation, and continued institutional participation... All of this is quietly transferring wealth in new ways.
Everything feels so strange, yet so familiar.
In this major transformation, it will become increasingly challenging for ordinary retail investors to make money, but opportunities still exist, provided we think and learn to prioritize survival (not easily eliminated by the market) over profit.
What is lost in the past should not be regretted. The temporary losses of the present do not need to be too entangled; as long as we continue to seize future opportunities. The real game has just begun; if you are completely washed off the table now, then one day in the future when you look back, this moment will continue to be one of your biggest regrets.
2. Three execution levels for seizing opportunities
Many people directly interpret successful trading as making more money. While making more money is undoubtedly a good outcome, focusing solely on this result doesn't necessarily help in seizing successful opportunities. Instead, one should focus on thinking and forming the driving internal factors to achieve such results.
So how should we understand this internal driving factor?
Next, we will organize three execution levels to help you:
1) The first level is to maintain focus + execution
If you see someone making money by buying a certain coin, you unhesitatingly chase the high. If you notice a recent hot topic, you jump in without hesitation. You think about making money like XX or even becoming rich overnight, but neglect the process others have gone through to achieve such results.
The word 'focus' is something we often mention in previous articles, and execution mainly refers to your actions. Both should complement each other. For example, you can select 1-3 niche areas that interest you to stay updated on, set daily or weekly learning or research plans to continually optimize your execution strategy, rather than solely focusing on price fluctuations or wallet balances.
Profit is just a result; focus and execution are the processes that lead to the result. Many people often fantasize or fixate on how much money they hope to earn, while neglecting how they can actually achieve that. This easily leads to a state of inner restlessness, lack of belief, or losing direction.
In short, true long-term stable returns do not come from simple mindless imitation or following but from one's own efficient focus and disciplined execution. To put it more simply, seizing the opportunity for success does not rely on fantasy but on daily diligence and persistent repetition of correct actions in your focused area.
2) The second level is to understand and master consistency
So-called consistency mainly means that you can remain rational and make reasonable decisions in various environments (like volatile markets). The simplest example is the position management concept frequently mentioned in our earlier articles; regardless of how the market changes, you can make the most suitable choices based on your position plan instead of blindly chasing one-time returns (like pursuing a 100-fold surge).
Whether in investment or entrepreneurship, what truly sets apart individuals is not a one-off stroke of luck or a fortunate windfall but maintaining a long-term stable high success rate. Among many seasoned investors I know, those who are more successful in investing are less likely to be tempted by sudden high-return opportunities but instead maintain consistency, valuing stable and replicable rhythms and strategies.
To put it simply, consistency is the foundation for generating compound interest. We don't need to deliberately seek one-time windfalls; as long as we do not make serious mistakes or losses and are not easily eliminated by this market, we can achieve long-term continuous growth.
3) The third level is to build your own advantages
In previous articles, we have also mentioned that everyone is an independent individual, with significant differences in background, experiences, risk tolerance, etc. Moreover, each person's thought models, knowledge, experiences, perspectives, and interests are also not the same.
We can improve our methodologies by learning from others' strengths or perspectives, but we should not easily copy others' results. The only thing a person can truly control is their own ability boundaries and cognitive advantages.
Perhaps you see/hear others playing with meme coins or dog coins and easily making 100 times, or even 1000 times returns, but that doesn't mean you can grasp that opportunity. Instead of wasting a lot of time looking for wealth secrets, it's better to focus on your own understanding and advantages.
So how can we quickly build our own advantages?
This is not difficult in thought; we just need to properly 'break down' based on our long-term goals. Here are 2 specific examples:
For example, I used to like researching various on-chain data, so I set up a 'data channel' for myself, continuously collecting, categorizing, and organizing over 300 data-related websites/tools using Excel (some tools I consider commonly used have already been shared in Huali Huawai Notion). When reading Huali Huawai articles, you often see me referencing various dimensions of data or screenshots, which are the results of my organized data channels. Likewise, I will further break down independent data summaries, such as the 40+ BTC indicators included in the Bitcoin Indicator Template I shared previously, which is one of my important references for long-term Bitcoin investment.
For example, I previously wrote some project research articles (during 2022-2023). To better understand or study projects, I designed a 'project research template' for myself (this template has been shared in the Huali Huawai Notion). I summarized and categorized over 300 data-related websites/tools using Excel. Whenever I reference various data or screenshots in Huali Huawai articles, these are actually the results of my organized data channels. Similarly, I further categorize independent-use data summaries, such as the 40+ BTC indicators included in the Bitcoin Indicator Template I shared in earlier articles, which is one of my important references for long-term Bitcoin investment.
- The project's narrative fit with the market, whether it has high recognition (e.g., high visibility on social media)
- The project's product-market fit (PMF), the changes in the project's core growth metrics (Mindshare),
- Does the project have good tokenomics (e.g., unlocking conditions, token utility, community prioritization in distribution)?
Similarly, we can establish our own information channels, decision-making systems, data models, social circles, etc., based on our goals and needs.
In summary, we believe that if we hope to achieve long-term success, it is not simply relying on a few strokes of luck, but rather on continually establishing and accumulating our own advantages. One or a few successes may allow you to make quick money, but only by building your own advantages can you maintain stability and navigate through bull and bear cycles. Especially in the investment market, the so-called 'shortcuts to success' that you see or others show you are often traps set for you. In the long run, the advantages you build will be your strongest and most advantageous opportunity insurance.
What we should pursue is not to 'seize opportunities' every time, but to find ways to make ourselves the 'person who always has opportunities', maintaining patience and waiting for the right opportunity, without fearing to miss out.
That's all for today. The images/data referenced in the main text have been added to the Huali Huawai Notion. The above content represents personal views and analyses, only for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/n0caK06yes5kAO0SEHirCA
