1. Fundamentals: Easing expectations dominate, risk sentiment warms.
Expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are rising again, with dual benefits compounded by concerns.
The market's expectation probability for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 94.4%, and Fed official Daly stated, 'The timing for rate cuts is approaching, and there may be more than two cuts this year'—this statement exceeds the current dot plot's expectation of 'only one cut'. If realized, it would mean an intensified monetary easing.
For the cryptocurrency market, expectations of interest rate cuts will drive down US Treasury yields and weaken the dollar, with the release of liquidity bringing dual benefits of 'valuation repair' and 'sentiment boost'. However, caution is needed: if inflation or employment data rebounds during this period, it may delay rate cuts, and the market could quickly give back gains, necessitating close monitoring of data changes.The EU has suspended countermeasures against the US, and the macro environment is stabilizing.
The EU decided to suspend countermeasures against the US for six months, easing trade tensions between the US and EU, leading to a more stable global macro environment. With improved risk sentiment, there is an increased willingness for funds to flow into high-yield assets, providing indirect support for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
2. Mainstream coin technical aspects: Repair rebound encounters resistance, direction awaits clarification.
BTC: Fluctuating repairs cannot change the adjustment trend; support levels are crucial.
Since the new high in mid-July, Bitcoin has shown an 'upper box fluctuation + breakdown downward' adjustment trend, currently in the fluctuation repair stage after the breakdown, aiming to fill the K-line and moving average gap caused by last week's sharp drop.
Volume characteristics show: During last week's pullback, volume moderately increased, reflecting some funds leaving to observe; in the last two days, the rebound has been on low volume and relatively weak, not yet forming a V-shaped reversal basis. The short-term key support is around 110K—this is both the top of the previous platform support and the MA90 daily moving average position. If lost, it will test the 105K line.
The 4-hour chart shows that the US trading session yesterday saw multiple spikes before falling back, forming a long upper shadow, indicating weakness in the upward trend and low willingness for previously exited funds to return. Currently, it has formed a large bearish candlestick, giving back yesterday's gains.
Intraday operations focus on bearish opportunities at the 115-116K resistance level, with support levels at 112.5-113.5K.
ETH: Encountering resistance at 3700, exhibiting significant range trading characteristics.
Ethereum has fallen back from its peak at the end of July, forming short-term support around 3700. After breaking down last week, it dropped significantly to around the MA30 daily average line at 3400. In the last two days, driven by interest rate cut expectations, it attempted to rise again to 3700 but faced resistance and fell back, showing a short-term stalemate of 'pressure above and support below'.
In terms of volume, yesterday saw a significant increase with a large bullish candlestick, indicating substantial participation of funds. However, Bitcoin, as a direct beneficiary of interest rate cuts, has shown lackluster performance, reflecting limited overall market participation, which has also led to Ethereum's weakness in rising.
Subsequent attention should focus on two nodes: stabilizing above 3600 and breaking through 3700, or challenging the previous high of 3941; if it falls below 3600, it may retest around 3400.
The 4-hour line closed with a large bearish candlestick, potentially damaging the upward rebound trend.
Intraday operations focus on the 3680-3720 resistance levels, with support levels looking at 3580-3620, and further observation at 3520 after a breakdown.
3. Altcoins: Waiting for Ethereum signals, opportunities exist in the ecology-linked sectors.
If Ethereum re-establishes above 3700, it may initiate a new round of increases, and its related ecological chain sectors (L2, AI, RWA, etc.) might see correlated market movements: an increase in the main chain price will enhance Ethereum's staking value, expand TVL, boost L2 popularity, and simultaneously promote stable funds flowing into RWA and DeFi protocols, attracting speculative funds to layout in hot areas like AI, DePIN, and GameFi, with related sectors possibly experiencing a Beta rotation explosion.
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(Note: This article is only a market dynamic analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and entering the market requires careful risk assessment.)#加密市场反弹
