The volatility in August will be relatively large. The market has risen to the present, and the bullish sentiment is nearly at its peak, indicating it will definitely rise in the short term.

During the beginning of July, I was optimistic because the pullback had reached a suitable level and funds started moving. Now BTC has risen from 106K to 123K, and the stage target has been achieved; the next step is to undergo some consolidation.

However, August is a bit complicated. The main issue is that the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in September are too optimistic, feeling as if it is intentionally inflating prices to lure everyone upward. Personally, I tend to think that before the positive news is realized, there needs to be a wave of profit-taking to lower the sentiment, providing a reason for interest rate cuts.

Additionally, we should observe whether the US stock market will experience a short-term peak due to the stablecoin legislation, which may take BTC up again with this wave of sentiment.

Trump has always liked to pump up prices to unload, and he may create a super positive scenario before mid-August, very similar to the situation before he took office in mid-January.

Then, in late August, the bubble will burst, leading to a major reshuffle, making everyone believe that a bear market has arrived in September.

At that point, announcing an interest rate cut will provide a rationalization for the decision.