On Monday, US stocks opened, with the Nasdaq index up 1.8%, the S&P 500 index up 1.2%, and gold up 0.36%; US non-farm payrolls were significantly revised down, with only 19,000 jobs added in May and 14,000 in June; the US job market is clearly weak, and the market has increased its bets on a Fed rate cut in September.
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SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce will embark on a ten-city tour from August to December this year as part of the SEC's newly launched public participation plan for cryptocurrencies. In previous roundtable discussions, the cryptocurrency working group has discussed topics such as cryptocurrency regulation, custody, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Caroline D. Pham, acting head of the CFTC, stated that the CFTC will launch a crypto sprint program to implement the recommendations of Trump’s Digital Asset Market Working Group, providing clear regulation for the digital asset market and promoting innovation, fulfilling the promise to usher in the golden age of crypto. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority officially issued a security alert, warning against fraudulent licensed stablecoin schemes; the Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance has officially come into effect, and the issuer supervision system has also begun to be implemented, with the regulatory system still in its early stages, adopting a “strict first, steady later” approach. (New York Times) reports that OpenAI has completed $8.3 billion in financing, with a valuation of $300 billion. Data from the Salvadoran Ministry of Finance shows that El Salvador has accumulated 8 BTC in the past 7 days, currently holding 6258.18 BTC. Metaplanet has increased its holdings by 463 BTC, now holding a total of 17595 BTC.
Analyst Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that the market has been torturous these days, but has finally passed smoothly; now looking forward to ETH reaching $3800 - $4000, but uncertain how the market will react if it worsens again. Matrixport analysis claims that this round of decline continues the seasonal weakness commonly seen in August, while also being influenced by macro uncertainties caused by the downward adjustment of US labor market data. Similar situations occurred last year when the Fed unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points due to market pressure. Given that the first cut is expected to occur as early as September, risk assets may still maintain weak performance. The Block reports: Amid macro uncertainties and institutional buying, the current market shows a cautious optimism, with the fear and greed index trending towards “greed”, and whale buying and rate cut expectations driving a reallocation of risk assets. Investors are focusing on the US July CPI data, to be released on August 12, as a key indicator for the next rate hike or cut decision, with the market expecting an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Last week, US BTC spot ETFs saw a cumulative outflow of $642.9 million; ETH spot ETFs saw a cumulative inflow of $154.3 million. Sharplink Gaming increased its holdings by 15822 ETH, now holding a total of 480204 ETH. Stablecoins increased by $1.78 billion last week, a week-on-week growth of 0.67%, with a total market value of $267.405 billion. Tether issued a cumulative amount of $6 billion in stablecoins in July, totaling $20 billion issued year-to-date, with Tether holding a total of $127 billion in US Treasury securities, surpassing South Korea to become the 18th largest holder of US Treasuries.
BitMine CEO Lee stated that ETH is benefiting from the tokenization driven by Wall Street, as it has advantages in legal clarity and technical reliability. If the Fed's monetary policy shifts, especially if it begins to cut rates in the coming months, BTC could rise to $250,000. US Treasury Secretary Becerra stated: The US has entered the golden age of cryptocurrency, exploring new possibilities for decentralized computing and digital payments, aiming to unleash the potential of blockchain technology. Trump's Digital Asset Advisory Committee Executive Director Bo Hines stated that Trump will start the BTC reserve plan "as soon as possible". Last week, only 73,000 jobs were added in the US July non-farm payrolls, far below the expected 113,000, with data for May and June significantly revised down; May's non-farm payrolls were corrected from 144,000 to 19,000; June's from 147,000 to 14,000, with a downward revision of nearly 90%. Trump stated: "These data have been significantly revised down; this is completely a scam aimed at embarrassing him; who could be so wrong? Labor Secretary Erika McEntarfer has been fired, and 'Too Late' Powell is not doing any better!" Fed's Williams stated: The unusually large downward adjustment of employment growth in May and June is the "real news" in Friday's non-farm report, and he will attend the September meeting with an "open mind" to discuss whether to cut rates.
Federal Reserve Board member Quigley will resign this week, allowing Trump to appoint a favored candidate early to pressure Chairman Powell, and this member could potentially replace Powell. Trump stated that he will announce a candidate in the coming days to fill the vacant Federal Reserve Board position. Trump: Powell, a stubborn idiot, must significantly lower interest rates immediately; if he continues to refuse, the board should take over and take actions that everyone knows must be taken. On Monday, US stocks opened, with the Nasdaq index up 1.8%, the S&P 500 index up 1.2%, and gold up 0.36%; BTC rose 1%, and ETH rose 5.7%, reaching $3700. This summer has broken the tradition of a sluggish market, with BTC and ETH showing resilience influenced by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, while altcoins have slightly rebounded. Non-farm payrolls have been significantly revised down, with only 19,000 jobs added in May and 14,000 in June; the US labor market has clearly weakened, with a 17.4% probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September and only a 4.2% probability of doing so in October. The market has increased its bets on a Fed rate cut in September. Bull markets often have pullbacks, and in addition to daily verbal threats to Powell, Trump may substantively arrange for a new Federal Reserve governor this week to accelerate the pace of rate cuts. In September last year, the Fed unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, and three consecutive rate cuts contributed to a small bull market at that time. This scenario is likely to repeat, hoping for a smooth market and rate cuts this time.