🟢 1D Chart – Macro Context
• Overall Trend: Despite the recent rebound, we remain within a Fibonacci retracement zone, still inside a possible continuation of the bearish structure.
• Fibonacci: The current bounce is touching the 0.5 level ($3,726). This zone often acts as natural resistance when price is correcting before further downside.
• Daily Volume: Significant (5.3M ETH), confirming institutional interest and market reaction.
• RSI(24): 63.82 — still has room before entering overbought territory, but it’s getting close.
• MACD: While the histogram is easing its negative slope, there’s no confirmed bullish crossover yet. Still in a moderately bearish pressure zone.
• 1D Candle Close: Strong close above the MA7 and near the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This confirms strength in the rebound, but doesn’t invalidate the bearish structure unless price breaks above $3,815 (0.618 Fib).
🟠 4H Chart (1PM–5PM Arizona) – Key Detail of the Rebound
• Candles: Solid bullish candle, large body, no dominant upper wick. Closed at the high of the period, indicating strong momentum.
• MACD: Fast line crossed the slow one sharply — confirms bullish momentum, although histogram is already high (possible short-term overextension).
• RSI(6): 82 — extreme overbought zone, signals potential rejection or short-term correction.
• Volume: Aligned with the bullish move. Rising volume along with price validates the impulse.
• Current Level: Price is testing the MA99 resistance ($3,692), which aligns with the top of the Fibonacci value zone.
🔍 Tactical & Macro-Structural Reading
📌 Signals Still Validating the Macro Bearish Structure:
• The 0.618 Fib level ($3,815) has not been broken — this is the “last line of defense” for bears.
• Daily MACD is still in a bearish phase with no bullish crossover, though weakening.
• The rebound was led by the Asian session, which tends to be less structurally strong than U.S. session-driven moves.
• Daily RSI isn’t yet overbought, but it’s approaching; 4H RSI is already in the extreme zone — this opens the door to profit-taking or short-term reversal.
📌 Signals Validating the Rebound (But Not Yet a Macro Reversal):
• Daily MA7 was broken with strength.
• Daily candle closed above the previous one.
• Daily MACD histogram is easing its downward slope.
• Current 4H candle is printing higher highs and higher lows → 4H structure has turned bullish, but hasn’t broken the 1D framework yet.
🔻 Key Zones for Potential Short Position Scaling (If Following a Macro Bearish Strategy):
Fibonacci Level Price Recommended Action
0.5 $3,726 Already reached – watch for rejection
0.618 $3,815 Ideal zone to scale in with confirmed rejection
0.786 $3,941 Bearish structure invalidated if broken with a strong daily close
🧭 Strategic Recommendation
🔸 If you’re trading with a macro (1D) structural view, this is a critical patience phase.
The rebound hasn’t broken the bearish structure yet, but it’s testing key resistance zones.
🔸 Scale into your short position only if:
• There’s clear rejection between $3,726 and $3,815 (e.g., bearish engulfing, decreasing volume, weakening RSI & MACD).
• You get confirmation on 1H or 4H candles (long upper wicks, reversal signals, bearish MACD cross on 1H).
🔸 Do not close your current short yet, as structural invalidation hasn’t occurred.
But stay fully alert if price breaks above $3,815 with strength.
