How to Capture Entry Points for Short-term Pullbacks After a Strong Market? (Thinking Logic, Calculation Method)

For example, ETH just surged to around 3716 and started to pull back. If you don't watch the market, the first reaction is usually to expect a pullback to 3680-3660, because this position is the edge of the second fluctuation zone (3660-3720) in the 3-4k range. If it breaks below 3660, it will pull back to the weak support levels of 3646 and 3626. These points are all noted in the mind when going long.

So this strategy is to make the first entry point at ETH 3680-3666, with 3646-3626 as the averaging down points, and 3595 for a defensive reduction. Generally, after a rise, it will consolidate at a high level before slowly pulling back. To avoid missing out and not entering too early, this strategy is designed with a first position at 3680-3666, averaging down at 3646-3626, still retaining a cost advantage.

At this time, after pulling back to 3674, it quickly goes back up and hovers around 3685. Does this mean the pullback is over and it’s time to enter? There's no need to rush; 3716 is the highest point from Monday to Tuesday, and it typically won't just pull back 30 points before hitting a new high again. Let the market settle first, then enter. For the aggressive traders who fear missing out, entering at 3680 isn't out of the question, but you must set a stop-loss at 3660. If you lose here, you can re-enter at a cost of 20-30 points below 3660.

After each rise, look at the 5 and 15-minute charts, then check the 30-minute and 1-hour levels to see which level's MACD shows a signal of weakening upward momentum (solid squares at the bottom), and anticipate a pullback to the moving average or the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at this level. If the actual pullback doesn't reach, you can still chase the rise. This is the simplest way to capture real-time pullback points. It’s better to combine it with Fibonacci analysis. Since I mostly use my phone, I can't pull out Fibonacci series on the charts, so I'm used to manual calculations. Knowing the highest point is crucial to pinpointing the starting point of a rise. The calculation of pullback points varies between strong and weak market conditions. For example, if ETH's highest point in 24H is 3716 and the lowest is 3481, simply using these two values to calculate today’s increase would be unreasonable; the calculated 0.382 and 0.5 levels are unlikely to be reached during a strong market. The lowest point today should capture yesterday's afternoon low of 3518. This is the starting point after yesterday's midday pullback ended.