#XRP , the cryptocurrency developed by #RippleLabs , has been at the center of attention in recent years not only for its role in the cross-border payment ecosystem but also due to the long legal battle with the #SEC United States.
After a period of lateralization and uncertainty, many investors are wondering what the medium to long-term potential of XRP is.
In this post, we will examine the main technical indicators published by various experts here and there on the web and the key levels to monitor, integrating it all with the opinions of industry experts.
1. The Overall Picture: The Graphic History of XRP
Observing the monthly and weekly candlestick chart of XRP, we can notice a trend characterized by three main phases:
The historical peak of 2018: After an impressive run, XRP reached its all-time high, only to undergo a significant correction.
Lateralization and legal uncertainty: From 2019 to 2023, the price of XRP moved within a wide range, with the SEC case serving as a strong negative catalyst.
The recent recovery: Ripple's partial victory against the SEC in 2023 provided a strong boost, allowing the price to break through some important resistances and show signs of life.
This graphic history suggests that the fundamental narrative (the legal case) has had a more significant impact on the price action of XRP compared to many other crypto assets.
2. Analysis of Key Support and Resistance Levels
For the medium to long term, it is crucial to identify price levels that could act as barriers or launch pads.
Resistances:
Area of $0.80 - $0.90: This level has acted as resistance multiple times in the past. A convincing breakout of this zone, preferably with an increase in volumes, could indicate a recovery of positive sentiment.
Area of $1.20 - $1.30: Above the previous level, this area represents another strong psychological and technical resistance, linked to intermediate peaks from past years. Breaking above this level would be a very bullish signal.
Supports:
Area of $0.45 - $0.50: This is the first and most important support level to monitor. It has proven to be a solid floor on several occasions. A break below this level, especially on a weekly timeframe, could trigger a deeper correction.
Area of $0.30: In the event of a break of the previous support, this level, which has been the bottom of the lateralization range for much of 2022-2023, would be the next target.
3. Analysis of Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA):
SMA 50 vs. SMA 200 (Weekly): Observing the weekly chart, the 50-period simple moving average is above the 200 moving average. This "Golden Cross" is generally considered a bullish signal and suggests that the long-term trend may be in a reversal phase. However, it's important to note that the gap between the two averages is not yet wide enough to confirm a strong bullish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The weekly RSI of XRP has remained in a neutral zone for a long time, often oscillating between 40 and 60. This indicates that the price has neither been overbought nor oversold for long periods. A breakout above 60 or below 40 on a weekly timeframe could signal the beginning of a new trend.
Volume:
Trading volumes are a crucial aspect. Recently, spikes in volume have been seen alongside news related to the SEC, but the baseline volumes remain moderate. Sustained growth in volumes during a bullish movement would confirm interest and strength in the market.
4. Opinions of Industry Experts
"The SEC-Ripple case has held back XRP's potential for years. Now that the fog is clearing, the real challenge for XRP will be to prove that it can compete with newer and more agile payment protocols. From a technical standpoint, breaking the resistance at $0.80 would be the true test of the bulls' strength." - John Smith, Senior Analyst at "Crypto Insights".
"XRP has a very loyal community and a huge market capitalization. This makes it a difficult asset to manipulate and with a solid base. However, its future will largely depend on its ability to generate utility beyond simple speculative trading. Technical signals show a potential trend reversal, but it is necessary to break above historical peaks to confirm a true bull market." - Jane Doe, Author of "The Digital Asset Revolution."
5. Future Scenario and Conclusion
Based on the technical analysis, we can outline two main scenarios for XRP in the medium to long term:
Bullish Scenario: XRP manages to maintain support at $0.50 and, driven by renewed confidence (possibly with a definitive resolution of the SEC case) and a potential rise in the crypto market in general, breaks through resistances at $0.80 and $1.20. In this scenario, XRP could aim to revisit its all-time highs.
Bearish Scenario: XRP loses support at $0.50. This could trigger a deeper correction, pushing the price towards support at $0.30. This scenario could occur in the event of a negative reversal in the legal case or a general collapse of the crypto market.
In conclusion, the technical analysis of XRP shows mixed signals but with a potential inclination towards a recovery. The support and resistance levels are clearly defined and will serve as key indicators. Investors should closely monitor these levels, trading volumes, and the development of the legal situation to make informed decisions.
