August 4, 2025
The market rebounded from the bottom, with BTC temporarily breaking away from the most important support level, returning to around 115,000, and Ethereum also rebounding above 3,500 USD. This rebound in the last two days is crucial for the current market trend because, apart from breaking away from the support line of balance between rises and falls, more importantly, this could be a preview of the opening of the US stock market tonight. In fact, looking at the futures situation in the US stock market, the market has stabilized. Last Friday's sudden plunge in the US stock market left many people confused, possibly a panic reaction to high prices. The Labor Department's data correction is not the first time, and the market's reaction is indeed a bit excessive. After two days of rest over the weekend, market sentiment has eased.
Last Friday, Trump ordered the dismissal of Labor Statistics Director Erika due to dissatisfaction with the Labor Department's employment data, accusing her of manipulating the data to exaggerate employment figures. Following this incident, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to 89.1% (last time after Powell's speech, this figure was below 50%, see reference (Powell breaks rate cut expectations, Ethereum rebounds strongly)). Sometimes it must be said that this crafty old man Trump has his tricks: Isn't the Federal Reserve supposed to maintain independence? Don't you like to let the data speak? Then I'll pull the rug out from under you, directly exposing the data you rely on, and now you have to cut rates whether you like it or not.
As for why Trump is so eager for a rate cut, aside from worrying about the government's debt interest expenses being too high, I believe he also has his own considerations. As one of the wealthiest presidents, the Trump family's companies under direct or indirect control are substantial. According to estimates from third-party organizations like Forbes, since Trump took office, his personal assets have increased between 600 million to 1 billion USD, and these are just the calculable ones, not to mention the unsold assets. Just the TRUMP token alone has a market value of tens of billions. A savvy businessman president will make every effort to boost the market value of US stocks, and this is beyond doubt.
By the way, there's also something that must be mentioned, which is the WLFI project named after Trump's son. According to the last official news, the Token Generation Event (TGE) is roughly in early September, right after the September interest rate meeting. Another large cryptocurrency project of the Trump family currently has an off-market valuation exceeding TRUMP, with a total market value nearing 20 billion USD. Why didn't it launch during the hot market two weeks ago? Besides not having properly arranged the exchange listing, it is more likely that they want to wait until after the rate cut, when the market is more lively, to launch, and all this requires the cooperation of a bull market. When the entire Trump family is working tirelessly to promote a bull market, what reason do we have to give up early? The second half of the year has just begun, and time is still on our side.
