Bitcoin is at 114,000, experiencing a pullback after peaking at 123,000. In the past two days, the gap has been filled, and many altcoins have also been dragged down. Some groups have started to panic, with people asking if a bear market has arrived.

Such questions arise during each deeper pullback, especially among those who still believe in the four-year cycle. They find it hard to fully believe that this is the middle of a bull market and not just a sign of an impending top. As a result, every time the price drops, holders tend to sell, and many end up with no coins left. Meanwhile, the bears also hesitate to enter the market, resulting in missed gains during rises and missed opportunities during falls.

My strategy is to continue believing that this cycle is not over. I am not waiting for Bitcoin to reach a certain price point; rather, I am waiting for the entire cycle to complete, hoping for an opportunity to sit down and review this complete record, like a farewell, but also like a restart. I used to think that around the Spring Festival might be the end, but that turned out to be just a temporary node. Every bull market has its 'calamities'; I thought last May was one, and it was indeed quite a deep cut; then it happened again this February. Will there be a third calamity in this cycle? It's hard to say, but each downturn is part of the bull market.

From various perspectives, including sentiment, structure, and capital, I do not believe that 120,000 is the final high point. Slowly, I am also trying to expand my investment direction, accepting a 'partial farewell' to BTC, but not giving it up. Short-term trends have always been difficult to predict, but I am more confident about the long-term cycle.

Currently, BTC is basically the closest to being the 'ultimate asset' among digital assets globally. It represents long-term faith and is a new store of value outside of the US dollar; it can even be said to be the cleanest 'digital gold' of this era.

As for why I still believe in cycles, it may indeed seem a bit 'mystical.' Each bull market brings a new group of main players: in 2013, it was geeks and early believers; in 2017, it was retail investors and speculators; in 2021, it was the American Generation Z. This time, it is ETFs, institutions, and more mature market participants. They have not yet experienced a thorough cleansing; once a deep-water wash occurs, what remains will be the foundation of the bull market.

Regarding escaping the peak, I will refer to some broad indicators, such as the proportion of coins held for over a year, funding rates, community enthusiasm, Google search trends, and cycle models, but ultimately, I rely on 'the strongest tool of humanity': intuition.