If we categorize based on weekly structure, I personally believe we are currently in the second half of the bull market and it is the mid-stage of the second half.
The first half of the bull market is from December 2022 to March 2024. This phase is essentially a transition from a rebound to a reversal and is a period of extreme uncertainty. It is very normal for everyone to be filled with doubts and confusion about the start of a new round of the bull market. It wasn't until early last year, when it surged to 50,000, that the market slowly reached a consensus that we are now in a new bull market.
From March 2024 to October 2024, it is overall a mid-break phase after the first half of the bull market. Due to the continuous ups and downs during this phase, especially with Bitcoin, the trend approaching a diffusion triangle state has led to insufficient market confidence. Many people who were originally firmly optimistic about Bitcoin reaching 100,000 or even higher have become uncertain due to the significant market fluctuations, and many bulls have even turned bearish. The altcoin market has plummeted, with continuous fluctuations leading to a significant blow to retail investors' confidence. People are starting to doubt whether the bull market has ended, and the market is beginning to fill with a new round of doubts and confusion.
After the mid-break phase is completed, starting from November 2024 when Bitcoin breaks through 73,777 again, it basically marks the opening of the second half of the bull market. The main representative of this phase is Bitcoin, which continues to rise crazily after breaking through 73,777, with little pause until it reaches 100,000. Ethereum's rebound after the decline successfully turned into a reversal after the drop, while altcoins have risen from low levels, generally bottoming out at 1 to 3 times. These phenomena basically indicate that the second half of the bull market has begun.
Then in January 2025, the market came to a sudden halt, with Bitcoin dropping from 109,500 to 7,500, and Ethereum from 4,100 to 1,350. Most altcoins fell by over 80%. Subsequently, on April 8, the market hit bottom, with BTC rising from 75,000 to 122,000 and Ethereum from 1,350 to 3,900. At this time, many people realized that we had entered the mid-peak stage of the second half, which is when the market becomes the most insane, because the end of a bull market is always marked by extreme FOMO. Therefore, it is essential to prepare for taking profits at this time.
Making money in the second half of the bull market will be easier because once the market reaches a certain height, the consensus of the bull market will further strengthen, and the bullish cohesion within the market will be more solid. At this point, all forces in the market are gathered together, and when everyone is working in the same direction, explosive growth becomes easy. Therefore, during this phase, it is advisable to prepare more funds, manage risk well, and wait for a few years to see if this wave can make money.
The reason I say we are currently in the mid-stage of the second half of the bull market is mainly that the market has only just begun to show some signs of improvement, and it has not yet reached a fully bullish consensus. Many people remain cautious about the current market. When everyone no longer worries about a significant correction and stops fearing heights, the market will slowly transition to the later stage of the second half of the bull market.
