Brothers, this first weekend of August, the global financial circle has completely exploded!
Two 'nuclear bombs' capable of shaking the market have exploded in succession, not only shattering capital confidence but also potentially becoming the 'igniter' for a new round of market movement in the crypto world.
The first bomb - non-farm data collapses dramatically
US July employment data fell far short of expectations, with new job creation significantly shrinking, and the data for the previous two months being sharply revised downward, totaling a decrease of 258,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate declined, completely shattering the 'soft landing' illusion. The dollar was hit hard, dropping 1.37% in a single day, marking the largest drop in four months, while gold soared, and market risk aversion suddenly intensified!
The second bomb - Trump launches 'global tax increase mode'
Starting August 7, the United States will officially impose high punitive tariffs on trade partners including Switzerland, India, and the EU, with rates as high as 39%. This is not only a tightening of trade policy but also a deadly blow to the global supply chain! Market panic has erupted, with Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidations exceeding $700 million in 24 hours, and ETH's single currency liquidation reaching $169 million, causing simultaneous shocks in US stocks, gold, and the crypto market!
Fed policy flip-flop? Interest rate hike expectations collapse, and the interest rate cut channel may be opened!
After the release of the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in September surged instantly. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut has exceeded 80%, and the market is highly united in betting on 'liquidity returning'. More crucially, Nick Timiraos, a reporter known as the 'new Fed spokesperson' (Wall Street Journal), immediately published an article stating: the Fed's rate cut window has already opened!
What does this mean?
Looking back at history, once the interest rate cut cycle began in 2019, Bitcoin surged by 35% within a month; and at the beginning of 2024, it was precisely due to the rising expectations of interest rate cuts that BTC soared from $30,000 to $120,000!
Moreover, long-term holders have not loosened their grip, with data showing that current long-term holders still control 53% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, and Trump's DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) has accumulated over $2 billion in BTC, clearly betting on a 'historical market reversal'.
But please note: now is not the time to buy the dip!
Although interest rate cut expectations have rapidly increased, there are still differences within the Fed. Atlanta Fed President Bostic has warned: 'The current policy environment is highly uncertain, and a rate cut does not mean that risks are eliminated!' The market must endure more data tests before welcoming easing, especially a series of inflation and employment indicators set to be released in August.
More deadly is Trump's tariff policy, which poses three major chain impacts on the crypto industry:
Mining supply chain disruption: Chinese chips and mining machines have been subjected to tariffs as high as 20%, leading to a surge in operational costs for North American mining sites, which may force miners to sell BTC to maintain cash flow.
Emerging market capital crisis: local currencies in countries like India and Southeast Asia have depreciated sharply, forcing people to sell their crypto assets for fiat currency to cope with living pressures, exacerbating market selling pressure.
Safe-haven faith shaken: Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets (like gold) have begun to decouple, with a maximum intraday drop of over 6%, more severe than the Nasdaq, and the correlation disorder has significantly shaken market confidence!
From the market perspective, both the technical and capital fronts are releasing warning signals simultaneously:
BTC has formed a significant selling pressure zone in the range of $117,500 to $118,000;
If the 114,000 support is breached, it will quickly test the bottom at $111,000;
The leverage ratio is as high as 25%, which means that shorts still have ample ammunition, and any rebound could be a 'false breakout and true bait'.
Key reminder: Major data will be released this Friday, and short-term volatility may continue to intensify!
Monday 22:00: Factory orders month-on-month
Tuesday 21:45 & 22:00: Markit & ISM Services PMI
Thursday 20:30: Initial jobless claims
Thursday 23:00: Inflation expectations survey
These data will determine the Fed's future policy path and will directly affect the risk appetite of the capital markets, serving as the 'life and death coordinates' for whether the crypto circle can turn the tide.
Old Zhu's summary of views:
Currently, the trends of BTC and ETH are still in a phase of consolidation and bottoming. Although the market has been frequently stirred by news, the overall logic - 'dollar easing + global risk aversion' is brewing the foundation for a new bull market.
Operational suggestions:
Control your emotions, give up chasing highs and cutting losses, and wait for the direction to become clear after the core data is released before positioning.
In this macro upheaval, market opportunities are never given to the 'impatient' but are left for those who can understand the overall trend and patiently ambush!
Brothers, this is not a simple technical rebound, but the beginning of a new global cycle!
The Fed is easing, and global trade fragmentation is opening the door to historically significant opportunities for digital assets!
The next wave of real wealth opportunities may have quietly arrived -
Are you ready?
Follow me by clicking the avatar, and I'll tell you the deep analysis of (BTC) (ETH) (SOL) in the next issue!