U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was far below expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Optimistic about two rate cuts within the year, but caution is needed regarding potential market pullback risks in August. This article is based on a piece by Hotcoin Research, organized, translated, and written by Deep Tide. (Background: False Prosperity! U.S. July non-farm employment far below expectations, revisions for May and June down by 258,000, Trump criticizes Powell, fires the Labor Secretary) (Background Supplement: Trump angrily fires the head of the Labor Statistics Bureau! When 'truth' becomes a toy of presidential power, the U.S. economy is plunging into a blind storm) Optimistic about two rate cuts this year, but caution is needed for August market pullback risks. Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.7 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.2%, or $2.26 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $26.69 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.65%, of which USDT accounts for 61.67%. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have risen while most have fallen, including: TON with a 7-day increase of 13.64%, ZORA with a 7-day increase of 40.39%, ZBCN with a 7-day increase of 26.02%, USELESS with a 7-day decrease of 31.66%, and FARTCOIN with a 7-day decrease of 31.79%. This week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw net outflows of $642.9 million; the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows of $155 million. Market predictions (August 4 - August 8): This week saw a slight increase in stablecoin issuance, continued net inflows into the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF, but significant net outflows in the Bitcoin spot ETF, with altcoins showing some pullback. The RSI index is at 36, indicating weakness. The Fear and Greed Index is at 54 (down from last week). On August 1, U.S. non-farm payroll data surprised with a disappointing July employment figure far below expectations, raising the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 77.7%, optimistic about two rate cuts this year, but caution is needed regarding market pullback risks in August. BTC: If it falls below $115,000, it may test $112,000 support; breaking above $120,000 could lead to $125,000. ETH: Support at $3,500, upward target at $4,000. Understand now Review of major events this week 1. On July 29, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase is in deep negotiations to acquire the Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX; 2. On July 31, according to strategicethreserve data, Bitmine, Sharplink Gaming, and The Ether Machine hold more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation; 3. On July 31, Stable completed a $28 million seed round financing, led jointly by Bitfinex and Hack VC; 4. On August 1, Coinbase plans to add tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and early token sale businesses to create an 'all-in-one trading platform'; 5. On August 1, according to Reuters, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched the Project Crypto initiative aimed at modernizing securities regulations and enabling on-chain capabilities in U.S. financial markets; 6. Ethereum ETFs saw continuous net inflows for 20 days, totaling $5.4 billion, setting a record; 7. The SEC approved the ETF physical redemption mechanism, allowing direct exchange of BTC/ETH for ETF shares; 8. Trump's tariff policy took effect on August 1, with markets watching capital flows in emerging markets. Macroeconomics 1. On July 31, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting of no change, in line with market expectations; 2. On July 31, the Federal Reserve maintained rates for the fifth consecutive time, keeping the benchmark rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, also in line with market expectations; 3. On August 1, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non-farm payroll for May was revised from 144,000 to 19,000; June's non-farm payroll was revised from 147,000 to 14,000; 4. On August 1, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of 73,000, against an expectation of 110,000. ETF According to statistics, from July 28 to August 1, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had net outflows of $642.9 million; as of August 1, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.665 billion, currently holding $20.503 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.781 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $147.994 billion. The U.S. Ethereum spot ETF had net inflows of $15.5 million. Foreseeing the future Event preview 1. The Vietnam Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence Summit CONVICTION 2025 will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from August 9 to 10, 2025; 2. Coinfest Asia 2025 will take place on August 21 to 22 in Bali, Indonesia; 3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 25 to 26, 2025; 4. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will take place on August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre. Important events 1. On August 7 at 19:00, the UK will announce its central bank interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; 2. On August 7 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 (in thousands); 3. On August 8 at 20:30, Canada will announce July employment figures (in thousands); 4. Brazilian legislators are preparing to debate a new cryptocurrency tax proposal put forward by President Lula, which would impose a fixed fee of 17.5% on all transactions, removing the income tax exemption for small trading businesses and targeting decentralized finance activities through a temporary measure effective in June. The deadline for this decision is October 8; if the measure is not approved by this date, it will expire. Token Unlock 1. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on August 5, worth about $1.56 million, accounting for 0.22% of the circulating supply; 2. EIGEN (EigenLayer) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on August 6, worth about $1.43 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply; 3. IMX (Immutable) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on August 8, worth about $12.31 million, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply; 4. MOVE (Movement) will unlock 50 million tokens on August 9, worth about $6.51 million,...

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